Should I draft Deshaun Watson or Justin Herbert for fantasy football in 2023?

The careers of Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert have contrasting story arcs. Watson is looking to regain his Pro Bowl form that enabled him to lead the league in passing yards three seasons ago. There’s also additional pressure for him to perform after signing a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract.

Meanwhile, Herbert has solidified his place as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He led the Los Angeles Chargers to a playoff appearance last season but collapsed against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite their varying narratives, both players can be difference-makers in fantasy football.

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Deshaun Watson Fantasy Outlook

The Houston Texans selected Deshaun Watson in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.

Fantasy football websites gave Watson a high ranking for the 2023 NFL season. RotoBaller has him as the tenth-best quarterback, while FantasyPros ranks him ninth. Therefore, he could be one of the starting play-callers for a ten-player fantasy league.

However, he will only become an asset if he becomes the dominating force he once was. Watson looked rusty when he played six games last season. After all, he missed nearly two years of football after sitting out 2021 and serving an 11-game suspension last year.

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There’s a re-learning curve for anyone who returns to their craft after not practicing it for almost two years. Luckily for him, he went through mandatory minicamps and training camp this season to build rapport with his teammates, especially wide receivers.

Learning his teammates’ nuances and tendencies will help him regain the form that enabled him to finish with 4,823 passing yards in 2020. Having talented wideouts like Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore should give Watson an edge in racking up the yards and the touchdowns.

Deshaun Watson’s average draft position ranges from 82 to 84. He is projected to have 3800 to 4500 passing yards with 23 to 33 touchdowns in 2023. He’s poised to be a low-end QB1 for a fantasy player that prioritized elite athletes from the skill positions. He could also be a QB2 in two-quarterback fantasy leagues.

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Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook

Justin Herbert holds the record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback with 31.

The bad news is that Justin Herbert’s numbers, even his rushing yards, have gone down. The former Oregon standout flashed his mobility after collecting eight rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons. Unfortunately, he finished with only 147 rushing yards and zero touchdowns last season.

The good news is that his passing numbers are still high for NFL quarterback standards. After a 5,000-yard season in 2021, Herbert finished with 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns, with a career-high 68.2 completion percentage.

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He achieved those numbers even if he was nursing a rib injury early in the season and his top receivers missing time due to injury. The passing yards will come for Herbert’s fantasy football owners because even running back Austin Ekeler has been sensational in making catches.

With Justin Herbert clear from any injuries, it’s time to invest in confidence with him. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s hurry-up offense gives him more chances to increase his stats. Hands down, he is a starting quarterback in all fantasy formats, and his mobility can bring in additional fantasy points.

His average draft position of 40 makes him a priority after the top players on the board are gone. No wonder he is projected to have 4500 to 4800 passing yards and 29 to 34 touchdowns in 2023.

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Who Should I Draft in 2023? Deshaun Watson or Justin Herbert?

JustiSportskeeda’ssus Deshaun Watson in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

Per Sportskeeda’s Start/Sit Optimizer, Justin Herbert could deliver more fantasy points than Deshaun Watson in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. Herbert is projected to have 19.8 fantasy points against the Miami Dolphins, while Watson might have 17.2 versus the Cincinnati Bengals.

The optimizer predicts that Herbert will have 319 passing yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Meanwhile, it forecasts Watson to finish with 208 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, one touchdown, and an interception.

Based on last year's sample size, it’s a conservative prediction for Watson. However, playing at home might boost his confidence. The Bengals also ranked 23rd in passing yards allowed (229.1) per game last season.

Justin Herbert also benefits from playing against a Dolphins squad that allowed 234.8 passing yards and 23.5 points per game last year. He could have a field day against Miami, especially if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are healthy.

But since Watson's production remains uncertain, Herbert is the safer bet for fantasy football in 2023.