Should I drop Aaron Jones? Exploring Packers RB's fantasy projection ahead of Week 12

When Aaron Jones first stepped foot in the Green Bay Packers as a 2017 draft pick, they were in dire straits at running back, having lost team veterans Eddie Lacy and James Starks.

He was unassuming in his first two seasons; but in 2019, he finally became the rusher that the team needed - hitting 1,000 yards for the first time, leading the league in rushing touchdowns, and reaching the NFC Championship Game.

Sine then, he became consistently prolific, chasing fellow 2017 draftee Jamaal Williams out of Wisconsin. But in 2023, he is now himself at risk at being outperformed by AJ Dillon. So what happened?

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Should I drop Aaron Jones this week?

Aaron Jones rushes v Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 has not been kind for Aaron Jones. So far, he has had a paltry 231 yards on 62 carries. Meanwhile, AJ Dillon has been steady, with 405 yards on 117 carries. The only place where the one-time Pro Bowler has the edge is in touchdowns - two against one.

But the most damning indictment of Jones' regression is in the receiving game. He was very prolific in the air in 2022, scoring more touchdowns there (five) than on the ground (two). But now he has just one catch for six to his credit.

Should he be dropped? Dillon has become more prolific than him as a rusher. As a receiver, he is not more prolific than Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs, and the Packers have also been occasionally known to run double-tight end formations. So yes, he is a good coice to drop.

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Will Aaron Jones play in Week 12?

Aaron Jones ieaves the game vs the Los Angeles Chargers

And even if Aaron Jones were not to be dropped from one's fantasy team, chances are he may may still be ruled out in real life, rendering any decisions moot.

He hurt his left knee during the 23-20 win against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. An MRI on Tuesday revealed a sprained MCL, although everyone must have sighed in relief after an ACL tear was initially feared. Head coach Matt LaFleur even said:

"Very relieved that it's not anything long term. We'll just kind of work through that."

But with Thanksgiving just around the corner, it would be in his best interests to rest Jones.

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Aaron Jones fantasy projection for 2023

Jordan Love rushes vs Detroit Lions

For the longest time, the Green Bay Packers were the overlords of the NFC north thanks to Aaron Rodgers. His impeccable passing accuracy and reliability were something the division had never seen before, but he arguably did not have a truly dependable option on the ground until Aaron Jones came along.

But it is now 2023 and Rodgers is plying his trade elsewhere, and Jordan Love, while good, has not exactly proven himself to be at his predecessor's level. Jones, meanwhile, has been dealing with injuries and an overall dip in performance compared to AJ Dillon. He currently has a year left in his contract.