Should I pick the Cowboys or Dolphins defense in Week 16? Exploring matchups for fantasy football

The Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins have two of the best-performing defenses in fantasy football this season. After putting some gigantic scores on the board, the idea of benching either one may seem crazy but we live in perilous times.

It is Week 16 of the NFL season which means fantasy playoffs for all leagues. Getting the right defense could be the difference between winning a close game or losing one. Both these defenses have been game-winners in previous weeks but as these two powerful offenses play each other in Week 16, this could be a bad day for their defenses.

This may seem like an example of overthinking leading to ruin, but all options must be considered in a playoff situation. With neither of these defenses projected to be among the best defenses of the week, let's look at their fantasy outlooks, starting with the Dallas Cowboys:

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Cowboys defense rank for Week 16

Cowboys defense fantasy outlook for Week 16

Having broken the 10-point barrier seven times, including outings of 35, 27 and 21 points, the notion of benching the Cowboys' defense is controversial, to say the least. This season, they have recorded 40 sacks, 13 INTs, eight fumble recoveries, one safety and seven TDs, good for 151 points and No. 1 in fantasy football.

The issue is that the Cowboys do seem to bully the weaker teams of the NFL and while there is no such thing as overkill in fantasy football, they don't always turn up against the better teams.

Let's look at their best days:

• 35 points, New York Giants (Week 1)
• 15 points, New York Jets (Week 2)
• 27 points, New England Patriots (Week 4)
• 13 points, LA Rams (Week 8)
• 21 points, Carolina Panthers (Week 11)
• 16 points, Washington Commanders (Week 12)
• 11 points, Philadelphia Eagles (Week 14)

Now let's look at their worst performances:

• 1 point. Arizona Cardinals (Week 3)
• -1 point, San Francisco 49ers (Week 5)
• 4 points, LA Chargers (Week 6)
• 2 points, Philadelphia Eagles (Week 9)
• -1 point, Seattle Seahawks (Week 13)
• 0 points, Buffalo Bills (Week 15)

As you can see, there is room for concern about how the Cowboys' defense will stand up against the Miami Dolphins in Week 16. Tyreek Hill's status is unclear heading into the week after missing the blowout win against the Jets and his status is going to be very important in any decision regarding Dallas' defense.

Dallas is projected to be the 26th-ranked defense in terms of Week 16 points by fantasy.nfl.com, which seems unlikely looking at their potential for INTs and sacks.

Sportskeeda's Start/Sit tool projects the Cowboys' defense to record 8.2 points in Week 16, which means their turnover and sack potential cannot be ignored. Given that they have scored seven TDs and Tua Tagovailoa is no stranger to the occasional INT (10 in 2023) or fumble (5 lost in 2023), that could swing the balance.

If Tyreek Hill can't play or is rested to heal up (as the Dolphins are 10-4), the Cowboys' defense is a must-start. If he does suit up, this becomes a lot more complicated but you should go with Dallas unless you have much better options available to you. There are some interesting options available as streamers in most leagues, which could be better in Week 16.

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Dolphins defense rank for Week 16

Dolphins defense fantasy outlook for Week 16

The Miami Dolphins defense has really come into its own as the season has progressed and has been putting in some huge performances in fantasy football of late.

The Dolphins have the No. 7 defense in scoring with 137.00 points in fantasy football. They came away with 24.00 points from shutting out the Jets in Week 16 and have recorded 12, 21, 12, 12 and 24 points in their last five games. Those games came against the Las Vegas Raiders (12), Jets (21), Commanders (12), Tennessee Titans (12) and Jets again (24).

The Dolphins defense has come away with fewer than five points on two occasions, which were:

• 2 points, Chargers (Week 1)
• -2 points, Buffalo Bills (Week 4)

This is very impressive considering they have played the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles this season.

Looking at their matchup in Week 16, the Cowboys have been pretty good with the ball, conceding only 12 turnovers (eight INTs, four fumbles lost). The Dolphins' defense has been given the 29th spot for scoring projections in Week 16 (fantasy.nfl.com), which seems harsh.

Sportskeeda's Start/Sit tool projects the Dolphins' defense to record 8.7 points, so it likes Miami's chances of sacks, turnovers and a defensive TD. Given that this defense has gotten stronger down the stretch, it's hard to abandon it now. Start the Dolphins' defense in Week 16 and hope the Cowboys struggle, as they have done against the other best teams in the NFL.

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Cowboys or Dolphins defense: Which one's the right call in fantasy football Week 16?

If you have the luxury of choosing between the two, you should start the Dolphins' defense. This does not mean the Dallas D is a poor pick, but Miami is trending in the right direction and the Cowboys have struggled against the NFL's powerhouses.

Which one's the right call in fantasy football Week 16?

While both these defenses project to be good picks, they each could be a disaster in Week 16 for fantasy football owners. The question here is what you think the game script will be.

If you think the Dolphins will walk it, their defense is a must-start. If you can see a shootout here, this could be a dangerous game. As for a close, low-scoring game? In that scenario, both defenses are great picks. If Tyreek Hill can't play or you foresee a big Dallas rebound and a statement blowout, the Cowboys defense could be a game-winner for you.