Stefon Diggs fantasy outlook: Should you draft Bills WR in 2023?

There’s a narrative that Stefon Diggs had a “down” year in 2022. I think that comes from the short-term memory so many fans have in fantasy.

With Buffalo bowing out in the first round of the playoffs, the season was considered a disaster for the Bills. Couple that with Diggs’ brutal output in the fantasy playoffs (and his Week 17 game being canceled) it’s no wonder folks are skeptical of the Bills wideout.

But I’m here to tell you that not only was Diggs a solid play for fantasy last year, but he’s even better this year.

It’s hard to look down at Diggs when, a year ago, he finished as the PPR WR 4 and averaged 18.9 points per game. He was a monster for fantasy owners during the regular season with eight top 10 PPR finishes through 13 weeks. But if you had Diggs on your team in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17), you didn’t even get a top-40 finish from him.

2023 NFL Pro Bowl Games

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Analyzing Stefon Diggs' 2023 fantasy outlook

Why should we be optimistic about Diggs in 2023? He’s locked into a target hog role in one of the NFL’s most exciting offenses for one. Last season, his 151 targets were good enough for 5th best among wide receivers.

Diggs was the apple of Josh Allen’s eye; he finished fourth in receiving yards per game (89.3), fifth in targets (151), and third in receptions (108). Again, Diggs did all of this while having one game canceled (Damar Hamlin's injury game).

When you stack Diggs up against the other elite wide receivers using advanced metrics, you see how good his 2022 was. Per Fantasy Points Data, Diggs finished 8th among all WRs (minimum 50 targets) in targets per route run at 0.27.

You might ask, “What in the world are targets per route run?” Simply, it tells you of all the routes that Stefon Diggs ran and how often he was targeted. This stat shows you how often a team truly targets their leading receivers. Diggs is a target-earning machine. His 8th-place finish tied him with Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Christian Watson, and Chris Olave. That’s elite company.

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Is Stefon Diggs a good pick in football football this year?

I love landing Diggs at the end of round one. You are getting a player who accounted for 33% of the Bills receiving yards. His 11 touchdowns were tied for second among all wideouts last year. So we have a player who sees a boatload of targets and scores at a high level.

Why isn’t he being drafted even higher? Good question.

Facing a tough decision on draft day? Check out our 'Who Should I Draft' tool that provides valuable insights to make the best pick.

Buffalo invested their first-round draft pick in tight end Dalton Kincaid. Many see the rookie as a threat to target share, but I see him as someone who can help lift coverage away from Diggs. That’s a good thing.

Add in the upgraded Bills run game with James Cook and Damien Harris, and we could see Buffalo sustaining even more drives. More drives equals more plays, and plays give us fantasy points.

AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills

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Where should you draft Stefon Diggs this year?

With an ADP of 10, Diggs is a smash play at the back end of your fantasy drafts. Don’t hesitate to click on Diggs this year and get your hands on a player with WR 1 upside in his range of outcomes at WR 5 pricing.

If you need one last stat to push you over the edge, I saved the best for last. Fantasy football is about opportunity. Diggs finished second among all WRs in end zone targets (18). He caught seven of those, which was tops in the entire league.