Super Bowl LIV: San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs preview and predictions

X-factors

Kendrick Bourne

Before I get into this, you know how good this information is when you see that I had Raheem Mostert and Emmanuel Moseley as my X-factors for the 49ers in the NFC Championship game and not only did Mostert almost break the single-game postseason rushing record while scoring four touchdowns, but Moseley also had the pick just before halftime that kind of already sealed the deal, as San Francisco went into the locker room up 28-0.

For my X-factors, I don’t want to give you guys who everybody knows really well anyway, such as Dee Ford looking to take it out his former team or Honeybadger making a difference on a snap where he disguises coverage and forces a bad decision by Jimmy G. I want to talk about guys nobody else is really doing and how their role in this game can be a decisive factor for who ends up hoisting the Lombardi trophy.

49ers – Kendrick Bourne and K’Waun Williams

Like I talked about already, the Chiefs keep their deep safeties pretty close to the hashes at all times and don’t want anybody to straight down the field or have one of them ready to break on any type of shallow post or dig route. That means where you have to attack them is on the perimeter. Whether it’s press man and you need to win off the line or throw over the top of them when they do jump on some type of deeper in-breaking route, just like they did on the Anthony Firkser touchdown in the Titans game.

The Niners will need to make some plays out wide and Bourne is one of the true flankers on that roster, whether that is binding working the corners with curls while binding the safety on that side of the field with a seam route or taking advantage of the space behind them when they come down against a crossing Deebo Samuel.

Defensively, I am looking specifically at the nickel position. With the heavy amount of 11 personnel the Chiefs have been playing, San Francisco should rarely be in base sets and that makes this guy a big piece. Williams will not only be matched up with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman in the slot quite a bit in general when the Niners run cover-three, where they will mostly shade the deep safety over whoever is the biggest threat from the according formation, but he also needs to carry those speedsters down the seams to limit the big plays over the top, because otherwise you will see Jimmie Ward having to chase after somebody streaking down the field. Williams could be used as a blitzer a few times too, like I described earlier.

Chiefs – Darwin Thompson and Tanoh Kpassagnon

For the Chiefs it was a little tougher to find real X-factors, because pretty much all of their skill-players have gone off in some game. So I looked at the running back position and while LeSean McCoy has been kept on shelf for this playoff run and I wouldn’t be shocked if Andy Reid decides to give him some touches all of a sudden, Thompson to me is the more interesting one.

Since December, he has clearly been the second option out of the backfield for Kansas City. As a runner, he brings excellent contact balance and physicality to the table. But even more important could be his involvement as a receiver. The Chiefs like to send him on wheel routes as they clear out to the opposite side of the field or he catch a few balls angling back inside underneath Kelce, if he is bracketed.

As far as defense goes for KC, I have my eye on the guy who has mostly played across from Frank Clark as the strong-side defensive end. Kpassagnon’s snap count has continually grown as the Chiefs have dealt with some injuries at the position and he has been on the field for about 83 percent of the plays this postseason.

Just like he did against Tennessee, when they finally slowed down Derrick Henry, the third-year man will need to set a hard edge and not allow the 49ers running-backs to get to the outside on him. The Chiefs might also swap him Chris Jones on passing situations and he will try to use his enormous length against the opposing guards versus Tennessee, when they even had him drop back and make a play on the ball 15 yards downfield.