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The 2022 NFL season kickoff game between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams is almost here. This means it’s time for to once again predict the entire year, presenting the playoff picture and projecting who will square off in Super Bowl LVII.
To determine playoff seeding, I had to go a step further and yet again predict all 272 games, work through tiebreakers and figure out exactly how these teams stack up and then put them in order. That way, I could ultimately pick my winners for each matchup, leading up to the eventual NFC and AFC representatives in the big game at the end of the season in Arizona.
The Excel sheet with every single game picked is at the very bottom, if you’re interested.
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Here’s how I believe things will shake out:
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NFL playoff picture - NFC conference
#1. Los Angeles Rams, NFC West
We have a tie at the top of the NFC table. Unlike some of the implications in the other conference, the Los Angeles Rams winning that direct matchup at Tampa Bay in week nine made it fairly easy to determine who earned the first-round bye. The reigning Super Bowl champions did lose/give up some familiar faces, with Andrew Whitworth retiring, then not being able to pay up for Von Miller and Odel Beckham Jr. still currently out there on the open market whilst recovering from a torn ACL.
Yet, they could arguably be a more complete team. Allen Robinson has a chance to revitalize his NFL career, Cam Akers is back healthy (to provide some balance with the running game), a linebacker level that won’t be attacked as regularly anymore in coverage. We could see some more prevalent pieces of the pass-rush, with Bobby Wagner coming in, plus they enter their second NFL season under DC Raheem Morris.
If Matt Stafford can cut down on his interceptions a little bit (tied for the NFL-lead with 17 in 2021), while staying close to his explosive per-attempt numbers (third-highest at 8.1), this team could be even better.
#2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFC South
Right there with L.A. is the team that they knocked out of the postseason earlier this year in the Wildcard Round (although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers certainly made them sweat in the second half by erasing a three-touchdown deficit). Tom Brady's un-retirement led to several key contributors staying in-house. They signed veterans hungry for a ring (such as Akiem Hicks and Julio Jones) and the front-office pulled off a crazy deal to acquire a Pro Bowl-level guard in Shaq Mason. Their squad is loaded once again.
The multitude of injuries along the interior of the O-line recently is my one major concern, but otherwise there’s not much to complain about. The defense should be better on paper, and with Chris Godwin set to be a ready for Week 1, they are deeper at wide receiver. Brady led the league in explosive pass plays (75) and was pressured at the lowest rate last season (11.1%), while the run defense has been elite as long as Vita Vea has been healthy (making opponents one-dimensional).
#3. Philadelphia Eagles, NFC East
I’ve been a huge fan of what the Philadelphia Eagles have done this offseason, pretty much every step of the way. They traded for a true alpha receiver in A.J. Brown, added the two Georgia boys in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean (to strengthen the defensive front-seven) and of course re-signed some of their key contributors.
I already saw them as the favorites for the NFC East, comparing it to the losses the Cowboys have suffered. Then they really attacked the secondary, adding James Bradberry to a one-year deal (as soon as the Giants released him), signing Jaquiski Tartt at great value and most recently trading for one of the top nickels in the game from New Orleans in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.
If that inclines DC Jonathan Gannon to be a little less conservative from a coverage-perspective, while the presence of A.J. Brown helps Jalen Hurts continue to develop as a passer, along with packing the league’s number one ground game (in total and yards per attempt), this should be a very complete squad.
#4. Green Bay Packers, NFC North
At this point, I kind of sound like a Green Bay Packers hater, expecting regression from their 13 wins for the third straight year now. But once again, I have some concerns as to why they could take a slight step back.
While I do understand that they didn’t have the financial resources to retain Davante Adams, not having the best receiver in the game (who has built up impeccable chemistry with Aaron Rodgers and is such a vital part of their passing attack due to his ability to quickly win off the line) will be a major transition. The O-line could definitely be stronger, with a couple of stalwarts back and depth added in the draft, which is why I expect them to lean even more into that two-headed rushing attack.
The defense should be one of the very best, adding a couple of guys from that historic Georgia defense to the front-seven, getting All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander back and being in the second season under coordinator Joe Berry. Yet again, their 6-2 record in one-score games (not counting a meaningless week 18 matchup) is bound to regress and because I have them losing at Philly, they end up with the fourth seed.
#5. San Francisco 49ers, NFC West
Is this San Francisco 49ers team clearly better than the one that went to the NFC Championship game last season? I have them winning one extra game in the regular season, but of course with Trey Lance at quarterback, we can’t truly know what kind of consistency can be expected from that position.
I had him as a breakout candidate for 2022 (but I also recognize that the whole operation isn’t super clean), although I see him making this a more dangerous squad. The overhauled O-line isn’t being talked about enough for one of the top rushing teams in the league, but I’ve liked what I’ve seen from the young guys.
They were the number one team in net yards per pass attempt last season (7.7), not because of Jimmy Garoppolo making big-time throws but rather the YAC skills of those skill-position players. Now we’ll see Trey Lance push the ball vertically outside the numbers. Defensively, they’ve replenished the depth up front. Adding Charvarius Ward as a feisty outside corner makes it really hard for opponents by squeezing down passing windows in zone coverage.
#6. New Orleans Saints, NFC South
Back in January/February, when the New Orleans Saints had just come short of somehow sneaking into the playoffs (with a combination of Jameis Winston and quarterbacks who aren’t even on the roster anymore), I didn’t believe we’d be back here. While we can question the resources spent on keeping them in win-now mode, there’s nothing in terms of the roster or – even without Sean Payton – the coaching staff that would make you believe they won’t be a pain in the ass.
Their defense allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt (3.7) and the fourth-fewest points per game (19.7) in the NFL last season and will bring back basically the same group other than swapping out their safety tandem. With Alvin Kamara’s legal situation pushed back now, Michael Thomas finally back healthy, a vertical element in rookie Chris Olave and hopefully a full 17 games from Winston (who went 5-2 as a starter in ’21), they have the offense to complement that.
#7. Minnesota Vikings, NFC North
I believe the Minnesota Vikings will improve in the 2022 NFL season. I want to see them open up the offense more, using 11 personnel at a higher rate and being more diverse in the running game. They have receivers capable of executing blocking assignments from tight sets, but then also creating challenges in the passing game when teams don’t give the group enough respect.
Similarly, the defense will transition to more modern split-safety principles and not be as vulnerable to scheme-beaters conceptually. If their new pieces in the secondary can quickly integrate themselves and Kirk Cousins can put a little more on his plate (after being one of the most efficient, but maybe not most challenging quarterbacks for defenses), this could be a dangerous group that we don’t pay enough attention to.
Just missed the cut: Dallas Cowboys (9-8) & Detroit Lions (8-9)
NFL playoff picture - AFC conference
#1. Buffalo Bills, AFC East
For me, the Buffalo Bills will finish atop the loaded AFC. This is thanks to a combination of talent on the roster, elite quarterback play, still excellent coaching and the motivation to blaze through the regular season. They will be back with a point to prove, given how frustrating their exit in the playoffs was (mere 13 seconds away from going to the conference championship game).
Their defense may not finish number one across the majority of NFL statistics again, but with Von Miller they now have somebody with a knack for making both plays in high-leverage moments along a deep defensive front. Kaiir Elam could give them a more physical element in that CB2.
Offensively, I expect them to be less up-and-down, with more commitment to going under center and taking their shots off play-action. Josh Allen continues to show his growth to take what is given to him in the drop-back game if teams run two-high shells.
#2. Los Angeles Chargers, AFC West
I'm certainly calling my shot here with the Los Angeles Chargers at number two, considering they missed out on the playoffs altogether last season. But I believe in the quarterback, the coach and the improvements on defense. I have Justin Herbert as a favorite for MVP, Brandon Staley earning Coach of the Year honors for where they finish and Derwin James as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
The front-office and coaching staff have already shown the capability to self-scout. They've invested heavily in their D-line to not leave them vulnerable in soft box looks, along with a true boundary corner for how they want to orchestrate their coverages. I expect to see a big jump from finishing 29th in points allowed last NFL season. That also makes me confident in their understanding that they need to allow their biggest asset to shine, not only going for it on fourth downs, but also letting Justin Herbert push the ball down the field more (with just 8.9% of his passes going for 20+ yards in ’21).
#3 Baltimore Ravens, AFC North
Sticking with that trend of picking teams that finished outside the top two in their division, I predict the Baltimore Ravens will go from worst to first this NFL season due to a multitude of factors.
First and foremost, they had the most adjusted games lost to injury in the last decade (191.2), according to Football Outsiders. That alone was a huge factor as to where they couldn’t be what they wanted to be fundamentally. With their entire backfield out for the year and having to re-shuffle the offensive line, they couldn’t nearly run the ball as effectively as they have in recent years.
Former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale still wanted to run a pressure-heavy man-coverage based defense on late downs, despite not having the bodies in the secondary to hold up. This put them dead-last in yards allowed per play (6.0). Not only do they get those guys back, but with the additions at safety with an underrated veteran in Marcus Williams and the draft’s top guy in Kyle Hamilton, they’ll adapt more of the modern meta under Mike Macdonald returning post his one-year stint at Michigan. One stat that does matter from last year, despite all that, is that the Ravens still went 7-4 when Lamar Jackson was in the lineup.
#4. Indianapolis Colts, AFC South
And let’s go with another change atop the final division here as the Indianapolis Colts build on their impressive second-half run from last season (without the late collapse in the final two games). This was the team nobody wanted to face in the NFL playoffs before they ultimately didn’t have to anyway.
Jonathan Taylor was the breakout star for this team, spear-heading the NFL’s number-two ranked rushing attack. Their defense may not have been super impressive statistically, but they did force the second-most turnovers (33) and added Yannick Ngakoue (to go with a couple of other young D-linemen entering year two), becoming a deep and scary rotation up front.
The biggest variable change, of course, is Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz at quarterback, who did have a solid year by the numbers. But he made too many bone-headed decisions and cost his team when it hurt the most. I expect Ryan to give this group a lot more stability and balance, while the defense can get after opposing QBs, as they can play with the lead.
#5. Kansas City Chiefs, AFC West
This feels oddly low for the Kansas City Chiefs. If you look through the full schedule grid, you’ll see that in theory they would be the number three team in the conference. But by finishing behind the Chargers in the West, they become the conference’s top Wildcard team (and one of the most dangerous I can ever remember).
I personally believe they can offset the loss of Tyreek Hill with all the receivers they’ve added and be a more multifaceted passing attack. The defense has a chance to be much more like they did from Week 8 on, when they surrendered just 17.7 points per game and won all but one of their final regular season contests (if those new faces can quickly fit in). I believe there could be a ramp-up period because of the roster overhaul, but more importantly, the rest of the division will simply challenge them more intensely.
#6. Denver Broncos, AFC West
Three teams were legitimately contending for that final Wild Card berth. This was between the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins. Ultimately, the group with the best quarterback and weakest out-of-division slate of opponents won out for me. Due to a better record versus common opponents, it lifted them up to the sixth seed.
Looking back at Denver’s 2021 NFL season, they can build on a defense that finished third league-wide in points allowed (18.9) and should look very much the same schematically with Ejiro Evero taking over (as a Vic Fangio disciple). They are getting back Bradley Chubb and added two underrated pieces from the 49ers (in nose-tackle D.J. Jones and nickelback K’Waun Williams), along with two more edge rushers via free agency and the draft.
Now you pair that with an immense upgrade at quarterback in Russell Wilson (who’s able to take advantage of a highly talented group of skill-position players and at worst an average O-line) and running back Javonte Williams as one of my biggest breakout candidates in year two.
#7. Cincinnati Bengals, AFC North
So two spots behind the Chiefs, I have the team that beat them in a stunning comeback to go to the Super Bowl earlier this year. Once again, this is not me not liking the Cincinnati Bengals (and I don’t rule them out from being a better team in the 2022 NFL season). But people seem to forget that they were 10-7 heading into the playoffs and all three teams in the AFC playoffs had the ball with a chance to tie or win the game right at the end against them.
Joe Burrow is a killer under center. Now entering year three, he has a tremendous group of skill-position players around him and the O-line could go from allowing a NFL-high 51 sacks last season to at least being average. Defensively, they also largely bring back the same group. However, unlike the Chargers, I don’t have the same trust in this offensive coaching staff.This is due to their tendency to run the ball on early downs and from 12 personnel at an inefficiently high rate. Combine that with probably not being as healthy (sixth-fewest AGL) and I have the Bengals “only” winning ten games again, while the Ravens take advantage of a fourth-place schedule this time around.
Just missed the cut: Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) & Miami Dolphins (10-7)
NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Round
NFC:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#2) defeat Minnesota Vikings (#7)
Philadelphia Eagles (#3) defeat New Orleans Saints (#6)
San Francisco 49ers (#5) defeat Green Bay Packers (#4)
AFC:
Los Angeles Chargers (#2) defeat Cincinnati Bengals (#7)
Baltimore Ravens (#3) defeat Denver Broncos (#6)
Kansas City Chiefs (#5) defeat Indianapolis Colts (#4)
NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round
NFC:
San Francisco 49ers (#5) defeat Los Angeles Rams (#1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#2) defeat Philadelphia Eagles (#3)
AFC:
Buffalo Bills (#1) defeat the Kansas City Chiefs (#5)
Baltimore Ravens (#3) defeat the Los Angeles Chargers (#2)
NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships
San Francisco 49ers (#5) defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#2)
Buffalo Bills (#1) defeat the Baltimore Ravens (#3)
NFL Super Bowl - San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills
Here it is! I have the 49ers continuing the trend of one Wild Card team making it all the way to the big game, after once again sending home the Packers. Kyle Shanahan flexed his muscle against Sean McVay once again, then potentially sending Tom Brady into retirement after losing to his childhood team.
They’ll be going up against the top-seeded Bills from the AFC, who are finally able to slay the dragon that is the Chiefs, and winning a challenging matchup with the Ravens (a Divisional Round game from a couple of years ago, where Taron Johnson’s delivered a pick-six and soon after). Lamar Jackson was knocked out of a one-score game.
Who will come out on top? You’ll have to stay tuned.
2022 NFL schedule - filled out (Excel)
If you enjoyed this breakdown, please make sure to visit the original piece at halilsrealfootballtalk.com (which also includes my predictions for every single award).
LA Rams Nation! Check out the latest Rams Schedule and dive into the LA Rams Depth Chart for NFL Season 2024-25.
