Predicting the entire 2022 NFL season

NFL playoff picture - AFC conference

AFC Divisional Playoffs - Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs

1.	Buffalo Bills	13 - 5
2.	Los Angeles Chargers	12 - 5
3.	Baltimore Ravens	11 - 6
4.	Indianapolis Colts	11 - 6
5.	Kansas City Chiefs	11 - 6
6.	Denver Broncos	10 - 7
7.	Cincinnati Bengals	10 - 7

#1. Buffalo Bills, AFC East

Buffalo Bills v Tennessee Titans

For me, the Buffalo Bills will finish atop the loaded AFC. This is thanks to a combination of talent on the roster, elite quarterback play, still excellent coaching and the motivation to blaze through the regular season. They will be back with a point to prove, given how frustrating their exit in the playoffs was (mere 13 seconds away from going to the conference championship game).

Their defense may not finish number one across the majority of NFL statistics again, but with Von Miller they now have somebody with a knack for making both plays in high-leverage moments along a deep defensive front. Kaiir Elam could give them a more physical element in that CB2.

Offensively, I expect them to be less up-and-down, with more commitment to going under center and taking their shots off play-action. Josh Allen continues to show his growth to take what is given to him in the drop-back game if teams run two-high shells.

#2. Los Angeles Chargers, AFC West

NFL Regular Season - Las Vegas Raiders v Los Angeles Chargers

I'm certainly calling my shot here with the Los Angeles Chargers at number two, considering they missed out on the playoffs altogether last season. But I believe in the quarterback, the coach and the improvements on defense. I have Justin Herbert as a favorite for MVP, Brandon Staley earning Coach of the Year honors for where they finish and Derwin James as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

The front-office and coaching staff have already shown the capability to self-scout. They've invested heavily in their D-line to not leave them vulnerable in soft box looks, along with a true boundary corner for how they want to orchestrate their coverages. I expect to see a big jump from finishing 29th in points allowed last NFL season. That also makes me confident in their understanding that they need to allow their biggest asset to shine, not only going for it on fourth downs, but also letting Justin Herbert push the ball down the field more (with just 8.9% of his passes going for 20+ yards in ’21).

#3 Baltimore Ravens, AFC North

NFL Regular Season - Baltimore Ravens v Denver Broncos

Sticking with that trend of picking teams that finished outside the top two in their division, I predict the Baltimore Ravens will go from worst to first this NFL season due to a multitude of factors.

First and foremost, they had the most adjusted games lost to injury in the last decade (191.2), according to Football Outsiders. That alone was a huge factor as to where they couldn’t be what they wanted to be fundamentally. With their entire backfield out for the year and having to re-shuffle the offensive line, they couldn’t nearly run the ball as effectively as they have in recent years.

Former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale still wanted to run a pressure-heavy man-coverage based defense on late downs, despite not having the bodies in the secondary to hold up. This put them dead-last in yards allowed per play (6.0). Not only do they get those guys back, but with the additions at safety with an underrated veteran in Marcus Williams and the draft’s top guy in Kyle Hamilton, they’ll adapt more of the modern meta under Mike Macdonald returning post his one-year stint at Michigan. One stat that does matter from last year, despite all that, is that the Ravens still went 7-4 when Lamar Jackson was in the lineup.

#4. Indianapolis Colts, AFC South

NFL Regular Season - Tennessee Titans v Indianapolis Colts

And let’s go with another change atop the final division here as the Indianapolis Colts build on their impressive second-half run from last season (without the late collapse in the final two games). This was the team nobody wanted to face in the NFL playoffs before they ultimately didn’t have to anyway.

Jonathan Taylor was the breakout star for this team, spear-heading the NFL’s number-two ranked rushing attack. Their defense may not have been super impressive statistically, but they did force the second-most turnovers (33) and added Yannick Ngakoue (to go with a couple of other young D-linemen entering year two), becoming a deep and scary rotation up front.

The biggest variable change, of course, is Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz at quarterback, who did have a solid year by the numbers. But he made too many bone-headed decisions and cost his team when it hurt the most. I expect Ryan to give this group a lot more stability and balance, while the defense can get after opposing QBs, as they can play with the lead.

#5. Kansas City Chiefs, AFC West

NFL Regular Season - New York Jets v Kansas City Chiefs

This feels oddly low for the Kansas City Chiefs. If you look through the full schedule grid, you’ll see that in theory they would be the number three team in the conference. But by finishing behind the Chargers in the West, they become the conference’s top Wildcard team (and one of the most dangerous I can ever remember).

I personally believe they can offset the loss of Tyreek Hill with all the receivers they’ve added and be a more multifaceted passing attack. The defense has a chance to be much more like they did from Week 8 on, when they surrendered just 17.7 points per game and won all but one of their final regular season contests (if those new faces can quickly fit in). I believe there could be a ramp-up period because of the roster overhaul, but more importantly, the rest of the division will simply challenge them more intensely.

#6. Denver Broncos, AFC West

NFL Regular Season - Denver Broncos v Dallas Cowboys

Three teams were legitimately contending for that final Wild Card berth. This was between the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins. Ultimately, the group with the best quarterback and weakest out-of-division slate of opponents won out for me. Due to a better record versus common opponents, it lifted them up to the sixth seed.

Looking back at Denver’s 2021 NFL season, they can build on a defense that finished third league-wide in points allowed (18.9) and should look very much the same schematically with Ejiro Evero taking over (as a Vic Fangio disciple). They are getting back Bradley Chubb and added two underrated pieces from the 49ers (in nose-tackle D.J. Jones and nickelback K’Waun Williams), along with two more edge rushers via free agency and the draft.

Now you pair that with an immense upgrade at quarterback in Russell Wilson (who’s able to take advantage of a highly talented group of skill-position players and at worst an average O-line) and running back Javonte Williams as one of my biggest breakout candidates in year two.

#7. Cincinnati Bengals, AFC North

NFL Playoffs, AFC Championship - Cincinnati Bengals v Kansas City Chiefs

So two spots behind the Chiefs, I have the team that beat them in a stunning comeback to go to the Super Bowl earlier this year. Once again, this is not me not liking the Cincinnati Bengals (and I don’t rule them out from being a better team in the 2022 NFL season). But people seem to forget that they were 10-7 heading into the playoffs and all three teams in the AFC playoffs had the ball with a chance to tie or win the game right at the end against them.

Joe Burrow is a killer under center. Now entering year three, he has a tremendous group of skill-position players around him and the O-line could go from allowing a NFL-high 51 sacks last season to at least being average. Defensively, they also largely bring back the same group. However, unlike the Chargers, I don’t have the same trust in this offensive coaching staff.This is due to their tendency to run the ball on early downs and from 12 personnel at an inefficiently high rate. Combine that with probably not being as healthy (sixth-fewest AGL) and I have the Bengals “only” winning ten games again, while the Ravens take advantage of a fourth-place schedule this time around.

Just missed the cut: Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) & Miami Dolphins (10-7)