The five biggest questions (and answers) for the 2022/23 NFL playoff race:

NFC South stare-off with the division on the line

Who the hell wants to win this NFC South?

Since we were just talking about the elite teams on either side of the bracket, let’s talk about which of these highly flawed groups takes the NFC South, sort of by default. Right now, the Bucs lead the way at 6-8, while the other four teams are currently 5-9 – and yet all of them are still alive in this race. Tampa Bay and Carolina are the two of those who still bafflingly control their own destiny. The Bucs would obviously maintain that top spot, if they just run the table (at Arizona, vs. Carolina, at Atlanta). Meanwhile, the Panthers would overtake them in that regard, if they do the same (vs. Detroit, at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans), thanks to the head-to-head matchup between the two teams, as Carolina already took care of business against Tom Brady & company at home. Other than that, of course, with the Bucs up by a game right now, they’d still be fine if they and the Panthers go 2-1 or 1-2 respectively. So to simplify this – Carolina needs to win the same amount of games as Tampa, along with their direct matchup.

So how in the world can the Saints or Falcons still sneak in, when they are both 5-9, with 2-3 and 1-4 records respectively inside their division? Well, considering they could, at best, get to a final record of 8-9 and the Bucs and Panthers are already 3-1 inside the South, the Falcons would pretty much need a miracle – Tampa not winning another game and neither of the other two groups winning another one of their games, as they are still set to face each other, seems very unrealistic. So most likely Atlanta would need to run the table (at Ravens, vs. Cardinals, vs. Bucs), while the Bucs only need to win one more game, and neither of the other two go 3-0 themselves. For the Saints, the road is a little bit easier, because they go to Cleveland this Saturday, then probably face a Jalen Hurts-less Philadelphia team and finally host Carolina in Week 18. So if they just beat the Panthers, they’d hold the tie-breaker over those guys and the Falcons, in case they finished with the same records. What they can’t have are the Bucs winning more than one game they have left, since Tampa has already secured the tie-breaker over New Orleans, thanks to that last-second comeback on Monday Night a couple of weeks ago.

The craziest part about all of this is that we could have all four teams finish with 6-11 or 7-10 records, and, if at that point, what will decide the division is who comes out victorious from that Week 17 matchup between the Panthers and Bucs – a tie would favor Carolina. Either way, unless the Bucs run the table, nobody in this division finishes with a record of .500 or above.

Prediction: Tampa Buy Buccaneers (8-9) over Carolina Panthers (7-10)

I believe the Panthers do sweep the Bucs in their season series, but due to losing this Sunday against Detroit, the Bucs beating the Cardinals and Falcons gives them the better overall record.