The five biggest questions (and answers) for the 2022/23 NFL playoff race:

Joe Burrow and Roquan Smith

How does the battle for the AFC North crown play out?

Something I don’t think is discussed is that, while the AFC and NFC East, respectively, have been the best divisions in football this year, the AFC North is not too far behind, with the Bengals at 10-4 and Ravens at 9-5 ahead of the Browns and Steelers, who now both sit at 6-8. Obviously with three weeks left, that eliminates the latter two from taking home the crown, but depending on who wins their direct matchup in Week 18, either group could still go 9-8 and theoretically be in playoff contention, although both teams having lost to the Jets and Dolphins, respectively, would demand Miami not win another game and New York only win one more contest.

Let’s now focus on that battle between Cincinnati and Baltimore for the division title. Most likely, it will come down to Week 18, when the Bengals play host to the Ravens. Before they meet again, the Bengals travel to New England and then host Buffalo, while the Ravens are home for the Falcons and Steelers. Since they’re now up by one in the win column, Cincinnati could already secure the division title before those two teams even meet, if they take care of business, while Baltimore loses either one of their two matchup. There are two scenarios that would make things very interesting. The Bengals could win their next two, but the Ravens could run the table, including that direct matchup in Week 18, or the Bengals could lose their next two while the Ravens win theirs, and then the Bengals could win that season-finale. In those cases, the Ravens would hold the direct tie-breaker at 12-5 or 11-6 respectively, either having swept Cincinnati in that season series or even if they were to finish with the same record, due to a better in-division resume, Baltimore would have the edge. So no matter how you turn it, the Bengals need to have an extra point in the win column in order to repeat as AFC North champs.

The Ravens won the first iteration of this rivalry back in Week Five on Sunday Night Football, on a Justin Tucker field goal with time running out, to make the final score 19-17. Having come into that matchup at 2-2 on both sides, the Ravens have gone 6-3 since then, while the Bengals have probably been the hottest team in the NFL, only losing one of their ensuing nine contests. The Ravens passing offenses has sort of devolved, thanks, in part, to injuries at receiver, but also Greg Roman misusing some of the personnel he does have at hand and just not installing passing concepts that stress the structure of defensive coverages, along with Lamar making more ill-advised decisions than we’re used to from him (and now also being hurt). However, with their top two running backs returning, they’ve been much more effective when handing the ball off recently, and their defense has improved massively from 15th all the way to eighth now in DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bengals have transformed into nearly a pure shotgun approach offensively, which has made them one of the most effective rushing and passing offenses, looking at success and EPA metrics. And while they don’t stand out in terms of sacks or takeaways, Cincy’s defense has been one of the most consistent units, under the guidance of DC Lou Anarumo.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals (12-5) over Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

I believe the Ravens will take care of business during their two-game home stint against the Falcons and Steelers. Meanwhile, the Bengals will beat the Patriots but lose to the Bills. Therefore, the North comes down to Week 18, where in an exact counterpart to their week five matchup, this team has Evan McPherson kicking a game-winning field goal.