The five biggest questions (and answers) for the 2022/23 NFL playoff race:

Trevor Lawrence shaking off a sack against the Titans

Can the Jaguars steal the AFC South?

Unlike the head-to-head it’s felt like for most of the season in the AFC North, the South has been pretty much a forgone conclusion, since the Titans’ 0-2 start, as they won seven of their next eight matchups and built up a massive 3.5-game lead on the Colts – who have since completely fallen into dysfunction, as they fired head coach Frank Reich and replaced him with a TV analyst, with no coaching experience beyond the high school level, and they have now lost four straight since a shocking win over the almost equally frustrating Raiders in his debut – and a four-game lead on the Jaguars actually. However, since then, Tennessee has lost at Philadelphia, in their first matchup with Jacksonville and against L.A. Chargers. Meanwhile, the Jags have gone 3-1 since their bye week, including heroic comebacks over the Ravens and just now the Cowboys, along with beating the Titans in the first rendition of this rivalry. That all has led to the two groups being separated by just one win on the record table.

So unless the Titans win their next two – at home versus the Texans and Cowboys, respectively – this should, once again, come down to a direct matchup between those two teams in Week 18. Houston has been very competitive these last two weeks, where it felt like they kind of threw the game against the Cowboys up by three with goal-to-go inside the two-minute warning, and then taking the Chiefs to overtime just now. Those guys have given Tennessee plenty of trouble in recent years, as they’ve split the season series every year since 2016, expect in 2020, when those games where still decided by a field goal and in overtime, respectively. Considering the Texans aren’t in a ton of danger to lose the number one pick, as Chicago is the only other team with three wins or less, I’m sure they would love to spoil the party for a division-rival. And then of course, the Cowboys will have plenty to play for the week after most likely, with a chance of locking up the top Wild Card berth on the NFC side of things.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville is traveling to New York, to take on the Jets on Thursday Night, and then also host the Texans the following week. Even if they were to win both those matchups, while the Titans lose their two remaining, it would still come down to whoever wins that season-finale, as Tennessee would hold the divisional tie-breaker with a win in Week 18. Yet, at the same time, the Jags could, of course, afford losing one of their two remaining matchups before the rematch in Tennessee, as long as those guys also lose one of their remaining games, since they could then secure the head-to-head tie-breaker in that season finale.

Unlike what we saw from Tennessee during that highly impressive eight-week run, they just haven’t been able to utilize the same formula that we’re used to from them. Even though they haven’t been super-efficient running the ball all year, when Derrick Henry has, at least, been involved and forced defenses to keep their eyes on him, Ryan Tannehill has been able to punish defenses with those deep shots off play-action, but now with a banged-up foot, his mobility and the velocity to drive the ball are mostly absent. Their defense is still exceptional at stopping the run, despite some of the lightest boxes in the league, but opponents have been able to isolate those back-up corners anyway and produced explosive plays through the air. For the Jags, it’s all about the development of Trevor Lawrence into one of the premiere young signal-callers, while the pass-catchers around him have stepped up, and the defense has, at least, been opportunistic, in order to get the ball back.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9) over Tennessee Titans (8-9)

And I believe that’s exactly how it plays out, as both teams beat the Texans each, but lose to the Jets and Cowboys, respectively. Then, in Week 18, the Jags’ firepower on offense ,once again, is too much for the Titans to stick with a Derrick Henry-centric gameplan, and we get Trevor Lawrence leading a dangerous Jacksonville group to the playoffs.