Evaluating the Seattle Seahawks' chances of winning the NFC West in 2022

After spending months evaluating college prospects and talking about what each team did in the draft and their overall roster, it’s time to discuss their potential in the upcoming season.

We will look at all eight teams who finished last in their division in 2021, and rank them based on the likelihood of ascending to the top of those groups. This exercise was a lot of fun, because it's enjoyable creating excitement for one franchise. It’s also good to think, poke holes in rosters/coaching staff and lay out a path for why they may underachieve.

People spend so much time hyping up the top teams that they neglect those closer to the bottom of the league, particularly in terms of the positives they have going for them.

In this article, we take a deep dive into the Seattle Seahawks and evaluate their chances in the NFC West.

Evaluating the NFC West

San Francisco 49ers v Seattle Seahawks

Many see the future as bleak for the Seahawks, and that's what comes from trading the greatest quarterback in franchise history in Russell Wilson and the tremendous Bobby Wagner. The Seahawks have openly declared themselves to be in a rebuilding phase and the roster is loaded with players on rookie deals.

The main issue with the Seahawks is that the rest of the NFC West is pretty scary. The NFC West features reigning Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams, and the team they narrowly defeated in the conference title game, the San Francisco 49ers. Not to mention the Arizona Cardinals, who also fell to the Rams in the wild-card round.

Let's see if there are any weaknesses in these three rosters:

#1 The Los Angeles Rams

The Rams pushed all of their chips into the middle of the table with big-time additions, which ultimately paid off with a Lombardi trophy. It’s easy to forget that this team failed to defeat the 49ers in the season finale to boost themselves to the NFC’s No. 2 seed.

The Rams entered the playoffs as fourth among the division winners and were not projected to make it past the second round.

Their defense had regressed from No. 1 the previous season to the middle of the pack. They did not display the balance of years past, ranking 25th in rushing yards and yards per carry respectively. There were also questions about Matthew Stafford being tied for the lead with 17 interceptions, though he shut people up in the playoffs.

LA did reload at a lot of the spots where they lost pieces from that championship run, but star performers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller were not brought back. They need to replace two starters on the offensive line and they lack depth on both sides. They won’t be top-five in injury luck (based on AGL) again.

They also lost their offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell to the Minnesota Vikings.

#2 The San Francisco 49ers

There’s a more defined path for the 49ers regressing this coming season. Once again, people seem to forget that this team was 3-5 at one point and needed the biggest second-half comeback ever against a Sean McVay team in week 18 to qualify for the playoffs.

Not counting Jimmy Garoppolo, who is still on the roster, they are bringing back all but two starters on both sides of the ball. However, Daniel Brunskill is certainly not the one guy from the interior three on your offensive line you’d like to retain. They lost a highly underrated nose-tackle, the only guy who fits that role, in D.J. Jones. They also lost one of their safeties in Jaquiski Tartt, along with Fred Warner in the middle.

Then there's whatever is going on with Deebo Samuel. The dual-threat receiver seems desperate to leave the 49ers, who are unwilling to entertain the notion. Whether he will stay the course or end up leaving is a distraction the 49ers could do without.

The key switch that we’ll likely see them make, however, is at quarterback. They’ve probably reached the ceiling with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but at least we’ve seen him run that Kyle Shanahan offense. While he has operated within the parameters of the system, his teams in San Francisco have gone 35-16.

Trey Lance has tremendous physical talent and it will be exciting to see what he can do in that offense. But the fact of the matter is that he has only attempted 71 career passes in the pros and he could snatch the job from Garoppolo.

#3 The Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are an exciting team, but they could take a big step back this upcoming season. There’s still some tension between quarterback Kyler Murray and the organization about his contract situation. This could bubble over to the rest of the team.

DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the upcoming season with a suspension. Sadly, one of their players, former first-round cornerback Jeff Gladney, was recently killed in a car crash. He could have been a key player in a weak position for them.

Some regression can be expected from last season, with the fourth-best turnover differential (+12). While re-connecting with his former college quarterback should be fun, wide receiver Marquise Brown is basically their first-round pick. This when they needed to reinforce other areas of the team.

They have at least five guys without a defined position on defense, thanks to Steve Keim’s weird obsession with draft “position-less” front-seven players. After starting last season 7-0, it’d be a surprise if they came out of that same stretch with a positive record this year.

Kliff Kingsbury’s teams have routinely fallen off in the second halves of every season. Their only win over the final six games came with a field goal and the Cardinals were destroyed by the Rams in the wildcard round. Given how little his offensive play-designs have helped Kyler Murray, there are valid concerns about this team.

Can the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West?

Dallas Cowboys v Seattle Seahawks

There’s no denying that there will be a significant downgrade in quarterback play, following Russell Wilson's departure, but it's pertinent to note that his play declined in each of the last two years. He was average in EPA this past season and the way the Seahawks found success offensively in the latter stages of 2021 was by riding the ground game.

This was spearheaded by Rashaad Penny, who averaged 176 rushing yards and went 4-2 over the final six weeks. The Seahawks have added an even more talented runner in Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III.

While they did lose three top-ranked offensive linemen based on PFF grades from last year, they might be better off in those spots with two top-eight ranked offensive tackle prospects and a solid veteran center in Austin Blythe. The duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are still there to take advantage of.

The quarterback battle between Geno Smith and Drew Lock is an interesting, though somewhat underwhelming one. But the Seahawks have a vertical tight-end in Noah Fant and a very underrated defensive tackle in Shelby Harris. They’ll of course need some young guys to step up on that side of the ball.

The Seahawks do have several talented athletes and will look different schematically with Sean Desai coming in as the likely defensive play-caller. The Seahawks won’t be as antiquated with keeping base personnel on the field in passing situations and just more deceptive late safety rotations. Their expected win total was 9.3 and that was playing a first- rather than fourth-team schedule.

The Seahawks look like they need a miracle to win the NFC West in 2022, but it could happen. A good start is essential for Seattle, as belief and confidence are key.

Chance of winning the division: <5%

For the full list, make sure to visit the original piece.