The top 10 quarterbacks a third into the 2023 NFL season

Now six weeks into the NFL season, it's time to examine the quarterback landscape. To paint the picture better, we grouped them into tiers, which can include between two and six names.

For this exercise, it was important to separate the player from his team and envision a roster made up of perfectly average pieces, without the benefit of elite play-makers or -callers to take pressure off them. Certain types of signal-callers can maximize what the system they’re in gives them, while others may not execute on as consistent a level, but can elevate what’s around them.

So the basis of this will always make it an imperfect problem to solve, but we’ll try to get as close as we can.

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Top 10 quarterbacks of the 2023 NFL season: Demigods

#1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Cheifs

Yes, Patrick Mahomes still sits at the top of the rankings. It hasn’t always been pretty for the Kansas City Chiefs' passing game and Mahomes was outplayed head-to-head by Zach Wilson (in what nearly turned into a loss back in Week 3), but otherwise, he’s been able to overcome imperfect circumstances.

Their only loss in the season-opener came without KC’s top two players other than number 15. In that contest, if Kadarius Toney doesn’t drop one of the multiple perfect passes (where it’s pick-sixed), they may be the only undefeated team left.

Blowing out the Chicago Bears certainly helped, but Mahomes has been able to lead the Chiefs offense to top-five rankings in yards per play (5.7), third-down conversion rate (48.1%) and percentage of drives resulting in points (46.8%). That’s despite having Travis Kelce for basically one full game, along with a highly flawed group of receivers, who have dropped an NFL-high 15 passes.

Taking two sacks each of the previous two weeks, he’s now closer to the rest of the pack, but Mahomes still allows the lowest sack percentage (2.6%) in the NFL, despite being pressured at the fifth-highest rate among starters (27.3%). His ability to manipulate rush angles, extend plays and anticipate the development of secondary/tertiary routes stands alone, especially when he can take advantage of that mind-meld with Kelce in the lineup.

What is funny, however – he’s basically the exact median of big-time throw vs. turnover-worthy play rate.

#2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is the ultimate superweapon at the quarterback position. He can launch rockets 60+ yards down the field whilst being flat-footed, rifle throws that bend the structure of coverages, shake off potential sacks, run away from pursuit and then go through a linebacker to get to the first-down marker. Nobody quite brings that kind of complete package.

With that being said, if you take out Week 1 at the New York Jets, when he kind of forced that “Superman mode”, his ability to win with his mind and accuracy has been highly impressive. This is not something I typically value too highly, but the fact that Allen currently leads the NFL with a 71.7% completion percentage should make some people reconsider what type of passer they consider him to be.

Buffalo has thankfully started to be able to run against advantageous looks if opponents keep both safeties deep to good enough effect and Allen hasn’t rushed 5+ times himself since Week 1. However, if you give him a chance to attack down the field, he will punish you in a hurry with freaking ropes.

Plus, as we saw even in a much less explosive showing Sunday Night against the Giants, he can create secondary plays that break the back of the defense as well as anybody.

Allen now leads the NFL in total EPA added generated (+70.1) and he’s quietly only had three turnover-worthy plays since week one, according to PFF.

Top 10 quarterbacks of the 2023 NFL season: 1-man shows

#3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

I’m not sure if there’s a more underappreciated player in the league right now than Lamar Jackson. Answering some comments on my team-based power rankings a couple of weeks ago (where somebody brought up his raw passing numbers (208.8 yards per game, five TDs vs. three INTs), someone asked me what “my excuse was” following the Pittsburgh Steelers game.

Seeing someone criticize THAT guy, after his receivers dropped three touchdowns and the most passes overall since 2017 (later earning the highest PFF passing grade of the week) perfectly encapsulates where we are with the box-score-watching public.

We just watched the Cleveland Browns defense be dominant against what had been an unstoppable San Francisco 49ers offense. Lamar made about five plays when he faced that unit which made those guys look foolish.

Then against the Steelers and Titans these last two weeks, he was moving his offense down the field at will, before OC Todd Monken refused to let him finish off those drives by throwing in goal-to-go situations.

Lamar Jackson is currently fourth in success rate per dropback (52.5%) and he’s tied for sixth among all players (including running backs) in first downs picked up on the ground (23). If he starts getting some help in terms of those skill-position guys, he’s an MVP candidate and the Ravens are a Super Bowl threat.

#4. Justin Herbert, LA Chargers

There are some concerns bout whether we’ll ever see a Justin Herbert-led team live up to their potential. Getting Kellen Moore to take over play-calling duties from Joe Lombardi has certainly been a lot more fun to watch in many ways.

We've seen them push the ball down the field and create YAC thanks to less static concepts, but his running backs have averaged just 2.5 yards per carry since Week 1, the defense has not come through late in the game and the decision-making by the head coach has been a nightmare.

Herbert is a well-calibrated machine as a thrower, who can hit any spot on the field with the appropriate touch and/or velocity on the ball. Unfortunately, he just had arguably the worst performance of his career, if you take out the stretch in which he struggled with the rib injury last year.

Herbert missed Keenan Allen streaking open a couple of times this past Monday night and there were a couple of uncharacteristically poor decisions against the Dallas Cowboys, including just his second INT of the season.

With that being said, he has thrown lasers out there all year long, ranking third in “on-target rate” of his passes (83.0%) and his ability to avoid getting sacked by using subtle movement around the pocket is outstanding. Plus, after the rib bothered him for most of 2022, he’s been a lot more active as a runner, picking up a lot of crucial first downs when given a lane.

#5. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s really a theme with this tier of guys, as once again Trevor Lawrence’s numbers should be better than where they are. Unfortunately, there’s no official tracking of this, but I feel confident about saying he leads the league in would-be touchdown throws, where his receivers weren’t able to get both feet in bounds.

Overall, the Jaguars offense has been plagued with untimely drops, turnovers in the red zone and those missed TD opportunities. However, I believe their quarterback has been exceptional over the last three weeks against the Falcons, Bills and Colts.

If you take out end-of-half situations (only on one of those did they even throw the ball), 15 of their 31 possessions added in points and three ended in a (strip-)sack. If you want to blame T-Law for holding onto the ball too long a couple of times, all three of those came on third or fourth down instead of forcing balls into traffic, while generally only Tua has a lower time to throw so far this season (2.46 seconds).

While having Calvin Ridley in some isolated situations for key downs has helped, three Jaguars pass-catchers have been targeted at least 44 times and Lawrence has started using his backs as more than just a last resort. So he’s utilizing his play-makers to take pressure off himself, yet still has a 4.9% big-time throw rate (eighth-highest in the league) according to PFF.

#6. Matthew Stafford, LA Rams

I don’t think there’s been a quarterback I’ve enjoyed watching more so far this year than Matthew Stafford. The man has been an absolute flame-thrower. He can dice up static zone coverages with underneath throws as well as lead his receivers down the field towards open grass, but most impressive has been the insane amount of tight-window balls on the intermediate level he’s drilled.

Along with that, his pocket movement has been superb, being able to navigate around multiple pressure points, quickly re-set and rip throws to any spot on the field, and regularly drop down the arm-angle when needed.

Sean McVay certainly deserves a lot of credit. The O-line has done a much better job than I anticipated of protecting their 35-year-old signal-caller coming off a season in which he got banged around pretty good, and they’ve had young skill-position players step up around him.

However, he’s only had Cooper Kupp for the last two weeks and his numbers almost feel detached from reality, when it comes to a couple of interceptions based on bad luck in terms of how the ball bounced and the fact they’ve relied on running back Kyren Williams converting at the goal-line.

What matters more is his big-time throw (7.6% – easily first) vs. turnover-worthy play rate (1.9% – third-lowest), while leading the league in completed air yards per attempt total (1040) and per attempt (7.5). He’s been slinging it all around the yard, without giving defenders many chances to make plays on the ball.

Top 10 quarterbacks of the 2023 NFL season: Great system guys

#7. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

What I hate so much about the entire conversation around Tua Tagovailoa is that it’s all black and white. Either people say he’s the best QB in the league or they call him an injury-prone, physically unimpressive system guy. His numbers truly are insane.

Tua currently is number one across the board in passing yards (1876), TDs (14), passer rating (114.1), yards per attempt (9.5), and percentage of passes past the first down marker (48.7%), despite having the lowest time to throw (2.37 seconds).

He does fit this bracket because what makes him so great is how exceptionally well he executes Mike McDaniel’s offense. Looking at how consistently he gets to the right answers based on the defensive picture is tremendous. However, what he’s added this season is being able to re-adjust as what the opposing team shows him changes post-snap and a few off-schedule plays are being sprinkled in.

Last season, a lot of what Miami did revolved around hitting windows they created with the way they spaced the field. This year Tua is actually hitting guys on the run a lot more regularly, as he averages a full yard more AFTER the catch than any other QB in the league (7.0 yards).

Where nuance needs to be added is the gravity that insane speed has and how incredibly McDaniel has been at setting the table with creative play designs. I’m not saying all the guys ahead of Tua could recreate what he’s doing, but on an average team, they can do more with less around them.

#8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

We need to stop acting like Jared Goff is this skinny white guy with a weak arm, the man has been slinging it all season long. He leads the league with 29 completions of 20+ yards (four more than anybody else) and is tied for an NFL-high 4.7 completed air yards per pass attempt. He also has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.4%), according to PFF.

When you look at that offense, it’s all about controlling the pace of games with the run game, hitting big shots off play-action and executing situationally. Goff has that feathery touch to lead his receivers away from trailing defenders, he does a great job of stopping them in windows against zone coverage and protecting them from big hits with the appropriate ball placement.

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson deserves a ton of credit for the way he creates schematic advantages through multiple avenues. The patience of his quarterback to wait out concepts and hang in the pocket after working through his progressions has been a big ingredient to their success.

This past Sunday, the Lions averaged just 1.8 yards per rush and picked up just two first downs on the ground, yet they only went three-and-out once and controlled the ball for 36.5 minutes. Goff currently is number two in the NFL in third-down conversion rate as a passer (48.1%), he’s fifth in EPA per play and PFF has him as the highest-graded QB overall (90.4).

#9. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

I received plenty of pushback for having Jalen Hurts as only my 56th-best overall player heading into the 2023 season, but I think looking at the step back this Eagles passing attack has taken and all the metrics supporting that, it was a very fair ranking.

Brian Johnson has done a good job of taking over offensive coordinator duties from Shane Steichen. However, he hasn’t presented as many simplistic reads via RPOs (Hurts led the league with 122 such) and single-key reads for his quarterbacks to put the ball into the hands of their pass-catchers in space, but rather he’s leaning into more of a straight rushing attack and letting this dominant O-line go to work.

Hurts is one of the best at dropping deep balls into the bucket of his receivers streaking down the sideline, when he gets A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith isolated on the outside. We’ve seen him hit quite a few of those yet again, but defensive coordinators have given him plenty of trouble with blitz-heavy gameplans or more intricate coverage rotations.

So as we get to designated situations, his ability to process information and solve problems isn’t on the level of the guys ahead of him and he’s holding onto the ball too long (3.06 seconds to throw is just a hundredth of a second off the highest mark in the league), also lending itself to the third-most turnover-worthy plays (10).

Hurts just threw away the Jets game with that late pick, but where kills defenses is when he fights through swinging arms and powers ahead for conversions on crucial third downs.

#10. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

After nearly a decade of borderline irrelevance, Geno Smith comfortably established himself as a top-ten QB in the league this past season – and he hasn’t done anything this year to take me off that.

This has been one of the most curious developments I can remember because it’s not like he made a few crazy plays or got lucky with contested passes (to where this isn’t replicable), as he’s doing a lot of high-level quarterback-y things.

Smith's head looks like a water sprinkler with the way he’s working through progressions. The feel for and subtle movement inside the pocket has been very impressive and he’s been one of the most fun watches due to his aggressive decision-making when he sees opportunities to attack down the field.

Big plays have been not as frequent this year, as Geno has faced fewer opportunities advantageous looks for those, which is why they’ve gone from dead-last to top-ten in rushing success rate (41.7%). However, the Hawks QB is second to only Josh Allen in completion percentage over expected (7.4%) and he was only intercepted once before last Sunday.

I thought for the majority of that game in Cincinnati, he showed a great understanding of the time he had to get the ball out when the defense blitzed him and the ball was on the money for the most part.

He had that one bad interception, where he thought he had rookie JSN on a wheel route, where the corner ended up inside in a two-high look, but nickel Mike Hilton smartly carried it, while Geno had his back in the flats for easy yardage. On the second one, D.K. Metcalf simply quit on the route.

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