TJ Hockenson fantasy outlook: Is Vikings TE a good pick in 2023?

Minnesota Vikings TE TJ Hockenson has been one of the most consistently productive fantasy football tight ends in recent NFL seasons.

Considering he plays in the most challenging position to navigate during each fantasy season, Hockenson holds tremendous value from his proven output. His situation entering the 2023 NFL season suggests he could be even busier than usual this year, further increasing his fantasy value.

Owning an elite tight end is one of the rare luxuries that very few fantasy managers get to enjoy. TJ Hockenson is on the exclusive list of players with a realistic chance of providing exactly that amenity in fantasy lineups this year.

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TJ Hockenson's 2023 Fantasy Outlook

TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson has always been an elite receiving weapon from the tight end position, but a midseason trade during the 2022 NFL season elevated his production to the next level.

Hockenson set new career highs in many statistical categories last year, many of which were by a wide margin. This includes his massive 86 receptions on 129 targets for 914 yards and six touchdowns.

Looking deeper into his excellent 2022 campaign suggests he could be in line for an even bigger 2023 fantasy football season.

Following his trade to the Minnesota Vikings via the Detroit Lions, his production saw a significant increase. In seven games with the Lions last year, Hockenson averaged 3.5 receptions on six targets per game.

In ten total games with the Vikings, he jumped up to averaging six receptions on 8.5 targets per game. He also finished among the ten tight ends in five separate weeks in the second half of the 2022 season, including two top-five finishes.

Hockenson has clearly earned the trust of quarterback Kirk Cousins and established himself as a top target in their passing scheme.

Considering the general weakness of the TE position in fantasy football, Hockenson holds elite value with an enormously high ceiling and extremely safe floor.

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Is TJ Hockenson a good pick in Fantasy Football this year?

TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson recently signed a massive contract extension with the Minnesota Vikings ahead of the 2023 NFL season. His four-year deal is worth $68.5 million and includes $42.5 million in guaranteed money. He is now the highest-paid tight end in NFL history at $17.125 million in AAV, surpassing Darren Waller at $17 million.

The fact that the Vikings chose to make Hockenson the highest-paid TE indicates how much they value his receiving contributions, as well as how much they plan on using him in their offensive scheme.

Add that they also moved on from long-time wide receiver Adam Thielen during the 2023 NFL offseason, and Hockenson's projections are skyrocketing.

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While the Vikings did select Jordan Addison during the 2023 NFL draft, it seems much more likely that Hockenson will serve as their secondary receiving target behind superstar Justin Jefferson. It's doubtful they would have paid him the way they did if they were planning for anything else.

Further increasing Hockenson's fantasy football value, in addition to the implied added volume, is that he is expected to receive more looks in the red zone. Thielen served this role last year, but now that he's gone, Hockenson has a real chance to increase his touchdown total.

fantasy outlook

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Where should you draft TJ Hockenson this year?

TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson currently ranks as the TE3 and 45th overall player in upcoming 2023 fantasy football drafts, according to his recent ADP.

This makes him one of the best available tight ends to own on any fantasy roster, regardless of the league format and scoring settings. He's often being selected around the fourth or fifth rounds in most drafts, so he will require a premium pick.

Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are the only tight ends ranked higher than Hockenson by ADP.

Kelce is in a tier of his own for the position, as he's being selected in the first round of just about every fantasy draft this year. Andrews currently ranks 29th overall player, meaning he's often picked a round or two earlier than Hockenson.

Tight ends with the most similar ADP to Hockenson, though slightly behind him, include Darren Waller and George Kittle.

What makes Hockenson a more attractive target than each of them is his implied consistency and reliability, giving him a much higher weekly floor. He also has arguably the highest upside of the group, especially considering the Vikings' commitment to him.

There is little reason to fade Hockenson during the 2023 fantasy football season. In fact, with the exception of Kelce, a case can be made that he's a better fantasy pick than any other tight end.