Top 10 quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft

#4 2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Trey Lance (North Dakota State)

6’ 4”, 230 pounds; RS SO

Trey Lance

With offers from the Big Ten to play linebacker or safety as barely a top-2000 overall recruit, Trey Lance banked on himself as a quarterback for North Dakota State. Barely seeing the field as a freshman, he ended up with a redshirt.

In his first and only season as a starter, he became the first ever freshman to win the FCS Walter Payton award, combining for 42 total touchdowns and just one turnover (fumble), which came on his 16th snap of the season.

The Bison finished with another perfect record and national title, as Lance completed 67% of his passes for 2786 yards, averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. The FCS didn’t play a season in 2020, but NDSU took part in one showcase game against Central Arkansas, which they won as well, even though his first pick in college.

Unlike most quarterback prospects we see come out these days, Lance wasn’t in one of those spread, RPO-oriented offenses, but rather made throws down the field and created big plays in a pro style attack, with a lot big personnel and play-action off it. In that Bison offense, he has experience with a multitude of slight of hand fakes and carries those play-fakes nicely to enhance their effect.

Lance has an absolute cannon of an arm and you see that confidence in his it, even when he’s a tad late on throws, to still bang it in there. He displays such easy zip on the ball and the raw power, to drive it in-between the safeties against two-high shells consistently, as well as making those high-difficulty far-field NFL throws on deep outs from the opposite hash.

He can complete 15-18 yard comeback routes with both feet off the ground, as you go through the tape. However, he can also put a lot of arc on the ball and have it land in the bucket of his receivers on vertical shots, where he consistently follows through and sticks his pinky-finger out, to put that loft on it. His 11.5 yards depth of target in 2019 was higher than what any other quarterback had last season.

I love what he does on play-action, in terms of hiding the ball and not losing much time getting it out of his hands, where he can set those feet quickly and then transition that weight back forward, as he decelerates and creates a very clean platform. The way he can stop his weight, when he gets to the top of those drops, after having his back turned to the defense, and set up his throws, is phenomenal. Yet he also has no issues throwing the ball on the run, where I really like how he slightly throttles down and you see him at times throw the ball with his feet parallel to the line of scrimmage, as he is still rolling out.

Lance has a really good grasp of the offense, in terms of what they want to set up and how he wants to lead defenders with his eyes and body language. He is very in tune with the progression and drop-backs, letting the ball go on time consistently, plus he trusts his receivers to anticipate throws before they really even get into their break.

He has experience with full-field reads and seems to clearly have the football IQ to learn a more advanced offense quickly. According to the NDSU coaches, he was responsible for the all their checks in protection. He has those sudden shoulder turns, when he progresses from high to low or decides to check it down to his back or outlets. And in single-high rotations, you see him freeze that safety and connect on skinny post routes with no issues.

However, while he can throws from a clean pocket, he has such a strong lower body, to get away from rushers and make something happen. I’ve seen him literally shake off an unblocked defender from the edge, who had jumped on his back, and throw a touchdown. Lance brings supreme athletic skill-set for the quarterback position.

He was heavily involved in the run game on QB power, draw plays and as a scrambler of course, where he is a load to bring down and has the speed to run away from pretty much anybody on the field against FCS competition, but is also kind of shifty and has defenders slip off him. And he finishes strong, as you actually see him truck some defenders at the end of his runs.

In 2019, he had five games with a rush of at least 30 yards. In the FCS Championship in the snow at the end of the season, Lance basically was the Bison’s lead-back, with 30 carries for 166 yards. The one that really comes to mind is a 44-yard TD scramble on a 3rd & 23 to start the fourth quarter and basically win the game.

While Lance did have a phenomenal year as a starter, his process of working through information is still a tick slow and he had a few plays that he got away with, that could have easily resulted in turnovers. When you talk about taking shots down the field, it really is just throwing the ball to where the receivers should end up no matter if he’s covered or not at times.

In the Bison offense, Lance had quite a few big completions served up on a silver platter, where he had somebody wide open wheeling out or turning upfield late on the original side of a play-fake. Much like another former North Dakota State quarterback in Carson Wentz, Lance puts himself at risk for injury on several occasions with the way he engages contact as a runner, which has to be coached out of him to some degree.

He has a tendency of having the ball’s nose point to the ground too much on underneath throws in particular, which I think comes from his tendency to break that arm angle, as he tries to shorten his motion. I’d like to see him improve that feel for pressure off the edge and climb the pocket more routinely. And he was certainly “protected” in that Bison offense, where he had the offensive line in the conference by far and they had the best team overall.

Lance attempted more than 23 passes just once during his only season as a starter and had a very shaky performance in his only game of 2020 against Central Arkansas, in which he threw his only career, missed a wide open touchdown early and allowed inferior competition to hang around.

However, you have to put that performance into some context, considering they really only had one week of preparation and their opponents at least had already played three games. At his pro day, the ball really jumped out Lance’s hands and you saw him drive the ball with a lot velocity, without getting off the ground too much, with tightened up footwork and release, even though there were still some missed throws downfield.

Mainstream media is just so quick to jump to conclusions and makes these general statements, without ever actually having to watch the tape and study offenses, Yes, 17 career starts aren’t a lot for Lance and he will have some developing to do against more complex defenses in the NFL and things like that.

But in terms of working inside the structure of an offense, the footwork, the big-time throws he can make and then how dangerous a runner he is on top of all that, I think he can a successful starter as a rookie in the right offense. In particular, I think he would be a perfect fit for one of those Shanahan-type of systems, where he is put on the move with bootlegs and they let him launch the ball deep.