Top 10 running backs in the 2021 NFL Draft

#4 2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Michael Carter Jr. (North Carolina)

[5’ 8”, 200 pounds; SR]

Michael Carter Jr.

Only a three-star recruit despite being named Florida’s Offensive Player of the Year, Michael Carter Jr. increased his production every single year with the Tar Heels.

In 2019, he cracked 1000 rushing yards on 177 carries and scored five TDs. As a senior, he put up over 1500 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns in just 11 games, averaging an insane eight yards per carry. He did all that despite splitting touches, pretty much even with teammate Javonte Williams, who is inarguably a top three back in the 2021 NFL draft class.

Carter is tough to find behind that big O-line. He is very patient with setting up his blockers, kind of hopping in the backfield and then sneaking through gaps once something opens up.

In the open field, he is very shifty and wins a ton of one-on-one tackling situations. He is tough to really square up because of his body language. He may dip or jab one way but then run the other. He also uses head-fakes and changes up gears.

Carter’s start-stop quickness is as good as it gets among this group of 2021 NFL draft backs, which helps him manipulate the back-seven and then make them make mistakes as they engage with blockers.

He can plant off either leg to bend around backfield penetration. While he may not be as big or powerful as his running mate in the backfield, for his stature, Carter breaks way more tackles than you’d expect. His duck underneath tacklers or spinning off contact for a few extra yards averaged 4.5 in 2020.

Last year, the consistency was there, with only two games of under 80 scrimmage yards (and none under 60). He also had those monster games like rushing for over 300 yards on 24 carries against Miami in his final collegiate performance. That included 29 runs of 15+ yards on the season.

Carter was also a huge factor in North Carolina’s passing game, where he caught 25 of 30 targets last year and only had one drop to go with eight missed tackles forced after the catch. He ran a ton of outside zone fakes leading directly into flat routes. He became the outlet receiver and beat the defense on angle routes to counter off that, and we have seen him get involved downfield on wheel routes, especially when they get him matched up against a linebacker.

When he is asked to stay in protection, he shows great urgency and quickness to put his body in position to pick up blitzes. Carter makes sure he approaches with low hands and tries to lift up to slow down their momentum or guide them past the quarterback if they attack too aggressively upfield.

Williams looked so spry throughout Senior Bowl week, where defenders just tapped the ball-carrier usually, but that first guy still mostly didn’t touch him. You saw the natural ability as a receiver on multiple occasions, and he didn’t get run over in pass-pro drills.

If there was full contact, I think Carter would have ripped off at least two or three 20+ yard runs each day. You saw him hit that extra gear several times while driving the pile about five yards into the end-zone for a big touchdown in the actual game.

It is tough to project a guy, who on good days, probably only comes in at 200 pounds, gain as much yardage after contract going up against pros as he just did last season.

None of the ACC defenses – maybe outside of Notre Dame, who aren't a usual member of the conference – presented a big challenge in 2020, and those UNC backs took advantage of that in a major way.

While that isn’t really a concept the NFL still follows, I don’t see Carter as a lead-back for a run-heavy offense. I also think he could be a little more aggressive with cuts to the backside (on zone run plays). While he technically does a good job as a pass-protector, his lack of mass could make things more difficult at the next level.

While there is some separation after the top three among this group, in my opinion, Carter could be a major value pick in the middle of day two. He has the vision and skillset to run inside and out, and for me, he is the top receiving back in the draft.

He would be best served to once again be paired up with more of a power back and have his skillset maximized by utilizing him as a space-player, even though he won’t shy away from banging into bodies at the line.