#51 Trevor Lawrence
While Jacksonville’s 2-1 start last season was encouraging, we saw that they weren’t quite ready to play consistent football on both sides of the ball on a weekly basis, as they lost the next five games.
However, from that point onwards, the Jags went 7-2 and their second-year quarterback was responsible for 17 touchdowns compared to only two interceptions.
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From week nine onwards, Lawrence was also fourth at the position in EPA per play. While he’s become a hyper-efficient machine throwing the ball, he reminded us of his special arm talent to defeat tight coverage and create explosive plays, as he was tied for third with Lamar Jackson with a big-time throw rate of 5.0% among quarterbacks with 200+ dropbacks.
Looking at Jacksonville’s playoff game against the Chargers, while T-Law threw four picks in the first half, he showed his ability to shake that off, take over and will his team to victory ultimately.
#52 George Kittle
The title for TE2 is tightly contested between Kittle and Mark Andrews, but due to lesser availability, the Niners standout has to settle for third place right now, even though I expect both guys to have better 2023 seasons.
Kittle’s PFF grade of 84.7 was actually the worst he’s had since his rookie campaign (2017). However, for the regular season, he ranked fifth among all skill-position players seeing 20+ targets come their way with a passer rating of 127.2 when targeted.
While he doesn’t quite have the frame to box defenders out like some other guys at that spot, he’s consistently one of the top run-blockers and he’s the most dangerous once the ball is in his hands.
Over the past four seasons, Kittle has hauled in at least half of his contested targets every year, with an average of 55.6%, and he’s averaged at least 6.2 yards after the catch in each of those.
#53 Austin Ekeler
I’m not sure there’s ever been a player who’s led the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns in back-to-back years, who’s been discussed less than this guy. Ekeler doesn’t have the same amount of explosive plays as the top names at the position, but that’s more due to the fact the Chargers finished 30th in yards per rush (3.8) and Justin Herbert was 31st in intended air yards per pass attempt (6.4).
Nonetheless, he’s one of the most consistent players on the ground and through the air. Ekeler averaged one-and-half more yards (4.5) than the rest of Charger ball carriers (3.0), with his team finishing dead-last in PFF run-blocking grade (45.7).
Not only did he catch 35 more passes than anybody else on the team but also 22 more than any other running back (107). The efficiency numbers through the air weren’t great, because he often had the ball flipped to him on checkdowns with little space to operate. But he was tied for the league’s best touchdown conversion rate inside the opposing three-yard line (83.3%).
#54 Matt Judon
Judon was already a Pro Bowl-level player in the final two years of his rookie contract in Baltimore, but he elevated his game as soon as he got to New England, despite their scheme relying a lot more on crushing the pocket, rather than asking their guys to attack up the field from wide alignments.
Over his two years under Bill Belichick and company, he ranks third in the NFL in sacks (28) and seventh in pressures (132), making the All-Star Game twice. He also put together back-to-back seasons with 14 tackles for loss, while missing just one of 61 tackling attempts this past year.
What stands out about him is how efficient he is with getting to the ball, working the shortest arc towards the passer and crashing through the inside shoulder of tight ends on the backside of run calls.
#55 Terry McLaurin
To me, McLaurin is the most underrated receiver and one of the least appreciated players overall across the league. The fact he averages 68.0 receiving yards per game through his first four seasons is pretty insane, considering he’s caught passes from the likes of Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Alex Smith on one leg, Garrett Gilbert, Taylor Heinicke, Carson Wentz and Sam Howell.
He’s a true alpha in terms of being able to toast elite corners, his overall mindset and when the ball is up for grabs. Last season, he finished seventh in terms of contested catches overall (17) and the rate on those opportunities among WRs (65.4%) despite barely scratching the six-foot mark.
And despite injuries across their receiving corp making McLaurin the guy defensive coordinators circled every week, only three receivers had a better rate of first downs per target (46.7%).
#56 Jalen Hurts
You can look at so many traditional or advanced statistics and they’d all say Hurts was one of the NFL’s top-five quarterbacks in 2022 – total touchdowns accountable for (35; despite missing two weeks), QBR (66.4), EPA per play (0.213) or big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate (4.5-to-1.8%).
However, if you actually look at the tape, how simplistic offensive coordinator Shane Steichen’s demands for the quarterback were, where the focus was more on letting their incredible O-line and pass-catchers shine, I could not quite put him up there.
Hurts has been a complete outlier in terms of his linear growth ever since his freshman season at Alabama. He’s the best power-runner at the position today, basically unstoppable in short-yardage situations, he throws beautiful go balls along the sideline and has certainly progressed mentally.
Yet, I would be lying if I said that I knew he was capable of excelling in the dropback systems you see the game’s best execute.
#57 CeeDee Lamb
While CeeDee hasn’t mossed DBs quite like he did at Oklahoma, he’s turned himself into one of the most effective pro receivers. Some people may argue he benefits from playing extensively in the slot and having space available to him, but he’s actually split snaps pretty evenly between inside and out these last couple of years.
He had the sixth-best win rate vs. man coverage according to PlayerProfiler in 2022 (44.9%). His yards per route run has increased all three years in Dallas (2.39 last season) and he picked up the sixth-most first downs through the air (67) this past season.
Lamb has really worked on his ability to work the middle of the field and to be a chain-mover on third downs, as he was tied for seventh with Tyreek Hill in terms of third-down catches leading to conversions (19). He was tied for fifth among WRs with 16 missed tackles forced post-catch.
He’s become one of the niftiest route-runners across the league, displays tremendous body control and is slippery with the ball in his hands.
#58 Jonathan Allen
The concerns about arthritic knees have completely vanished and we are looking at one of the biggest bullies along the interior D-line in the game today. There seem to be a couple of snaps every week where he puts a guard on skates and places him into the lap of the quarterback.
That’s why he may only have 18.5 sacks over the past three (regular) seasons, but at least 47 pressures in each of those. He’s disruptive against the run as well, forcing the ball carrier to stop in the backfield. He’s tied for ninth league-wide with 16 tackles for loss and fourth among interior D-linemen with 32 defensive stops in the run game, all while missing just one of 66 tackles attempted.
#59 Derrick Henry
Despite missing one game and not playing more than 75% of offensive snaps in any week last season, Henry led the league with 349 carries and finished second with 1538 yards on the ground.
The reason he’s this low is that his game has become far less consistent. That certainly has something to do with an O-line that's started falling off. However, with a 15.4% rate of missed tackles forced per rush, he’s produced less individually, and he actually led all non-quarterbacks with six fumbles this past season.
With that being said, something that I don’t think people realize is that Henry was first by quite a margin in receiving yards per route run (2.08 vs. 1.67 for the next-closest) among running backs and he led all skill-position players with 11.7 yards after the catch on average.
He also dropped five passes, but if you give him space on a screen pass or swing route, he can punish the defense.
#60 Shaquille Leonard
Many people seem to forget how good Shaq has been throughout his career until he was lost three games into 2022 with head and back injuries. Along with winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, he made first- and second-team All-Pro twice each across his first four seasons in Indy.
Going back to 2021, when he played 16 games, he led the league with eight forced fumbles, was tied for the most interceptions among linebackers (four) and broke up seven additional passes.
Shaq has also had double-digit pressures all four healthy years despite never rushing the passer more than 65 times, with a 22.8% success rate. So he’s a tremendous run-defender who can shoot gaps to creative negative plays and has range out to the sideline.
Moreover, his length makes him incredibly hard to throw around in passing situations, yet he’s been highly effective as a blitzer and might be the best spy against mobile quarterbacks. He’s just a playmaker.
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