Tua Tagovailoa vs. Deshaun Watson: Who should I start in fantasy football Week 1?

Tua Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson are two of the most polarizing fantasy football quarterbacks ahead of the 2023 NFL season. This is mostly because of their wide range of realistic fantasy outcomes, causing a divide among fantasy players related to their value.

Both quarterbacks have massive upsides based on their current team situations as well as a history of strong individual performances. They also each have dangerously low floors as a result of their frustrating 2022 seasons.

For fantasy managers forced to choose between the two of them in Week 1, the following breakdown should make the decision a bit easier.

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Is Tua Tagovailoa a good fantasy pick?

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa was one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL last year, especially based on his efficiency numbers. He led all quarterbacks last season in several key categories, including passer rating, yards per passing attempt and passing touchdown percentage. This put him in the early discussion to be among the MVP favorites before injuries derailed his promising campaign.

The Miami Dolphins' emerging star suffered multiple concussions last season, a dangerous trend for any player. His severe risk of suffering another one is what makes him a gamble in fantasy football. While he has reportedly spent the entire offseason focusing on ways to prevent additional head injuries, he's still much more at risk for injury than any other quarterback this year.

The good news for Tua Tagovailoa is that if he can find a way to remain healthy, he has one of the highest ceilings for any player in his position. His incredible efficiency from last year was his first season with coach Mike McDaniel and superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill, joining Jaylen Waddle.

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All of these important pieces had a full offseason to continue developing their offensive scheme, meaning Tagovailoa could realistically take another step forward to elite territory. This is why he is being selected as the QB11 in fantasy drafts, according to his ADP, as his upside usually outweighs his risk.

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Is Deshaun Watson a good fantasy pick?

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson is one of the most intriguing quarterback options ahead of the 2023 fantasy football season. The last time he played a full season (with the Houston Texans in 2020), he led the entire NFL in passing yards. After sitting out for nearly two years and being traded to the Cleveland Browns, he didn't look like the same quarterback last year.

The veteran quarterback was suspended for the first 11 games of the season but struggled heavily when he finally made his long-anticipated return. This is what creates the dilemma for his 2023 fantasy outlook because it's difficult for managers to accurately predict what to expect.

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Watson has shown he can be one of the NFL's best quarterbacks, as he was with the Texans, or one of the worst, like he was last year with the Browns.

The doubters will say that all of his time away from football permanently made him an inferior quarterback moving forward. His fans will claim he used the 2023 offseason to shake off the rust and he will be back to his elite version this year. Only time will tell which side is correct about his outlook.

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For managers looking to acquire Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson or any other player, make sure to use the fantasy football trade analyzer to get the most valuable return.

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Tua Tagvailoa vs. Deshaun Watson: Who should I start?

Tua Tagvailoa vs. Deshaun Watson in Week 1

According to Sportskeeda's Start/Sit Optimizer, Tua Tagovailoa makes for a stronger play than Deshaun Watson in Week 1 of the 2023 fantasy football season.

The projections are based on a large assortment of factors, including direct weekly matchups, past individual performances and current team expectations.

Both quarterbacks have a history of putting together massive fantasy football performances, but Tua Tagovailoa has done so much more recently. He was excellent during the 2022 season whenever healthy, while Watson severely struggled. This suggests they have similar ceilings this year, but a healthy Tua Tagovailoa would seem to have a much higher floor.

The Miami Dolphins will also be playing in a much more favorable matchup in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Their meeting is projected to be the highest-scoring matchup of the entire Week 1 slate of games. The Cleveland Browns have a much less enticing matchup for fantasy football, in a projected low-scoring game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Another important factor for Tagovailoa is his continuity within his offense. He will be playing in the same system as last year, while the Dolphins returned just about all of their offensive starters. This gives him an additional advantage, and paired with his ideal matchup, makes him a high-upside Week 1 fantasy quarterback.