Week 16 Texans vs. Chiefs prediction and fantasy outlook feat. Travis Kelce

Modified Dec 21, 2024 11:00 GMT

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns - Source: Imagn — Week 16 Texans vs. Chiefs prediction and fantasy outlook feat. Travis Kelce - Source: Imagn

Both the Texans and the Chiefs have confirmed their spots in the playoffs but that does not mean their Week 16 matchup has nothing riding on it. Kansas City is currently the top seed in the AFC with a 13-1 record and has Buffalo breathing down their necks at 11-3.

The Bills face the Patriots twice and the Jets once in their final three games and are expected to win them all to finish 14-3. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have to navigate Houston, Pittsburgh, and Denver, all of whom have winning records. The first two have also booked their postseason tickets.

The Texans, meanwhile, have won the AFC South but have the same number of wins as the Ravens, Broncos, and Chargers. Usurping either the Chiefs or the Bills looks tough for them but a win here will put them level in the victory column with the Steelers, who face Baltimore next. They are jostling for a seeding position and beating the Chiefs will be a huge bonus.

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Texans vs. Chiefs prediction

Defeating the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions and current AFC leaders in Kansas City will be tough for Houston. The Texans are in the bottom half of the table for offensive yards per game this year despite playing in a division where every other team is currently below 0.500.

Houston averages 324.2 yards per game, with 212.8 yards coming through the air and 111.4 on the ground. The Chiefs' defense allows 215 passing yards per match on average, similar to what Houston picks up, but their run defense is stingier, giving up just 91.9 yards on the ground.

Kansas City's offense also has remarkably similar numbers to the Texans, indicating this will be a close game. They average 224.1 passing yards and 112.1 rushing yards per game, for a total of 336.2 yards. Houston's defense has also been good this year, giving up just 196.9 yards through the air and 105.6 yards on the ground.

Considering the above, we see that Texans allow fewer passing and rushing yards than what the Chiefs typically pick up, whereas Kansas City's defense gives up more yards through the air than Houston typically records but is significantly tighter in the run game.

DeMeco Ryans' team has scored an average of 23 points in the last three matches. Based on our analysis, we expect them to slightly underachieve that mark as what they lose on the ground could only partially be balanced through the air. Andy Reid's charges, meanwhile, are averaging 20 points in their last three outings, and we expect them to fall under that by a bit since they might lose in both the running and passing games.

Taking all of this into account, we predict a shock road victory that blows the AFC wide open.

Prediction: Texans 21 - 17 Chiefs

Texans vs. Chiefs fantasy outlook

With our analysis telling us that the Texans might have to be more reliant on passing the ball, Nico Collins should be a player that fantasy football managers should consider. He did not have a stellar outing in Houston's last game against the Dolphins, but that could change in Week 16.

Both defenses could be a good pick as we are forecasting a low-scoring game. From the Chiefs' side, Travis Kelce could be someone to seriously consider as he has made a habit of coming up clutch in late-season games when they matter the most. Hollywood Brown has also been activated from injured reserve and could be a sneaky pick as he makes his 2024 debut.

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