What are the realistic expectations for Tua Tagovailoa going into the 2021-22 NFL season?

Tua Tagovailoa has faced scrutiny and then some since entering the season as a rookie last year. The Miami fan base expected Tua to be the second coming of Dan Marino the moment he took the field. The Miami Dolphins, however, have practiced patience with their rookie, especially since Tua was coming off season-ending hip surgery. The initial thought was that Tua would never play at the level he did at Alabama.

Rumors kept suggesting that the Dolphins were set to make an offer for Deshaun Watson. Those rumors have carried over since the 2020 offseason, even as the Texans announced that Watson would remain on their 53-man roster, with Dolphins owner Stephen Ross reportedly stating that he "really wants" Tua.

I’m told Dolphins coach Brian Flores just addressed his team regarding recent reports tying Miami to a possible trade for Deshaun Watson. Sources say he told players and staff that Tua Tagovailoa is “our quarterback” in a brief but poignant endorsement of the QB. (quick thread)

— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) August 31, 2021

Brian Flores, the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, is not one to mince words. Flores gave the the final word to reporters who continually asked about the Watson drama. When questioned about Tua being the Dolphins' true starter, Flores had this to say:

“Yes,” Flores said. “I don’t know if I can be more clear. I mean, I don’t know how many times you want to say it. I don’t know how much more clear I can be. Tua’s our starter. I mean, if I need to say it again, I will.”

It is clear that Tua Tagovailoa is the man behind center for the foreseeable future. No number of draft picks will be enough to acquire Watson and derail the plans made for the second-year man out of Alabama.

Is a winning season success enough for Tua Tagovailoa?

Tua Tagovailoa took over starting duties from Week 8 of the 2020 season. Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched for the eventual starter earlier than expected. It was a sad bit of news, as Fitzpatrick is a league-wide fan favorite, but the front office saw enough from the rookie to let him take the field for some valuable experience.

In Tua's 10 games, he posted a 6-3 record, throwing for 1,814 yards, 11 TDs and five INTs. He posted a 87.1 QBR by season's end. Tua's 6.3 YPA was ranked 30th among active quarterbacks. This led people to believe that Tua would not make it at the NFL level. Most of the interceptions under Tua's belt came from a poor performance in the final game of the season. AFC East rival Buffalo Bills gave the Dolphins all they could handle.

Twice, the rookie was benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick; another learning curve for Tua to take in. Flores had a win-now mentality and felt Fitzpatrick was the best option to dig them out of a hole in two separate weeks.

Week 10 against the Broncos saw Fitzpatrick take the field in the fourth quarter. Even the gunslinger in Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't pull the Dolphins out of the lead the Broncos had taken. In Week 16, the Dolphins pulled off a wild victory against the Raiders when Fitzpatrick threw a bomb downfield while a facemask penalty occurred, securing a come-from-behind field goal win.

The Dolphins' playoff hopes were extinguished with a 10-6 season. Usually, this would be enough to garner a trip to the postseason, but the AFC was stacked with win-heavy teams.

With a 6-3 record and decent stats, why was Tua Tagovailoa under such pressure?

The Dolphins have been starved of a true franchise quarterback since Dan Marino retired back in 1999. This is now Tua's team to lead. With a bolstered offense that saw Will Fuller being acquired from the Texans and Rookie of the Year hopeful Jaylen Waddle being drafted from Alabama, there is now more firepower at Tua's disposal.

.@Tua put up numbers in just one half of #NFLPreseason action:🐬 16/23🐬 183 pass yards🐬 1 TD pic.twitter.com/JfOxZUY29g

— NFL (@NFL) August 24, 2021

Tua appears to be well over his hip injury. The Chan Gailey offense is now a thing of the past. Tua can now gun the ball down the field.

One realistic expectation for the second-year quarterback is to post another winning season, even in the same division as the Buffalo Bills. Early fantasy projections have Tua sitting at 3,800 yards, 25 TDs and 12 INTs. If Tua can go near those numbers while maintaining a 10-6 record at a minimum, this will be a successful season for the quarterback.