Will Michael Penix Jr.'s draft stock fall in 2024? National Championship game shows why Washington QB could slide down

Michael Penix Jr's Washington Huskies lost to the Michigan Wolverines in the 2024 national championship game and it could affect the quarterback's draft stock in this year's NFL draft.

Penix was riding a high after the thrilling victory over Texas in the Sugar Bowl, where he threw for 430 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.

But the sugar rush evaporated in the Huskies' 34-13 loss to the Wolverines. He finished with just one touchdown and his two interceptions changed the flow of the game. He completed 27 of 51 passing attempts for 255 yards and had negative 5 rushing yards in three attempts.

It was not a pretty outing and his draft stock might fall as a result. We look at some of the reasons why some NFL teams might have their doubts about him.

Michael Penix Jr. might fall beyond the first day of the 2024 NFL draft after Washington's loss in the national championship

There is no doubt that Michael Penix Jr. is an elite quarterback in college. But whether scouts will be convinced of his ability to play in the NFL remains to be seen, especially after the national championship loss to Michigan.

The Washington quarterback is the 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up and has shown his abilities even before in Indiana. But the top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft are expected to be Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and the man who won the Heisman, Jayden Daniels.

Here are some of the reasons why Michael Penix Jr. is likely to be considered after them.

#3 - Age concerns

The Huskies star is 23 years old, whereas most quarterbacks that declare for the draft are 20 to 21 years of age. That could count against him as NFL scouts may feel that the reason he has been so good in college is due to his advanced maturity at that level. That could lead them to conclude that he would not be as good in professional football.

Last year's national championship-winning quarterback, Stetson Bennett of Georgia, suffered from similar concerns despite winning back-to-back titles and being named offensive MVP in both. He was drafted in the fourth round by the Los Angeles Rams to sit behind Matthew Stafford.

#2 - Injury History

Another factor that might cloud NFL scouts' judgment is his injury history. There is good reason to believe that those players who have been banged up in college a few too many times will struggle for longevity in professional football.

He had two season-ending ACL tears during his time in Indiana: once in 2018 and once in 2020. In 2019 and 2021, he disclosed the SC joint in his non-throwing arm. That means he has suffered four serious injuries in four years.

NFL general managers have seen elite players like Andrew Luck retire early due to injuries and they might conclude there is no upside to taking a risk on Michael Penix Jr.

#1 - National Championship loss

The national championship loss is also expected to count against him. Max Duggan, who led the unfancied TCU all the way to the title game last season before their blowout loss to Georgia, was only drafted in the seventh round by the Los Angeles Chargers. This is despite him being just 22 years old, a year younger than the current Washington quarterback.

Duggan was also a Heisman runner-up to Caleb Williams like Michael Penix Jr. was this year and did not have as extensive a catalog of injuries as the Huskies starter. All of these point to Penix's draft stock slipping.

At this point, his best hope might be being taken in the second round after the three top quarterbacks like Will Levis was for the Tennessee Titans. But given how well the former Kentucky quarterback has done and cemented himself as the starter for the foreseeable future, that might not be the worst outcome for Michael Penix Jr.