Second- and third-year NFL players ready to break out in 2021: Offense edition

Tight end - Irv Smith Jr.

Tight-end – Irv Smith Jr.

If you’re involved in the fantasy football community, this is a name you’re very familiar with.

Back in the 2019 draft, Smith was the guy who didn’t receive a lot of love because of those two outstanding Iowa tight ends, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant, getting all the buzz. Ultimately, both were drafted with the top 20 picks.

Smith's last season at Alabama saw him right between Henry Ruggs III and DeVonta Smith in receiving production and he impressed with his big-play ability. I personally had a very early second-round grade on him, as he ultimately went 50th overall.

As a rookie, Smith already showed some signs, catching 36 passes for just over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns, before last season when he reached 365 yards and five TDs on five fewer grabs, leading to an average yards per reception of 12.2. Still, he has yet to really break out, and there used to be one major road block for him to do so.

Kyle Rudolph has been as solid a tight end as we’ve had in the NFC for the last decade, in terms of his ability to contribute as an in-line blocker, being a dependable target over the middle of the field and producing in the red-zone.

However, I never thought there was really anything special about him and to me he had become somewhat overrated. Seeing what Smith could do running down the seams and with the ball in his hands, I wanted to see him get more chances.

Since the Vikings decided to cut Rudolph in early March, he has moved on to New York. The third-year TE is ready to emerge in a starting role. In terms of the opportunities he’s gotten, Smith didn’t see more than five targets come his way in a game until week 16 of this past season, which resulted in six grabs for 53 yards and a couple of touchdowns.

Rudolph was placed on IR from week 14 on and his younger replacement made the most of that chance to step in, as he caught 15 of his 20 targets for almost 200 yards, despite getting banged up in one of those contests. That’s probably why Minnesota felt comfortable about moving on from the veteran.

Going back to his rookie year, the Vikings moved Smith around a lot, splitting him out wide, putting him at H-back or even having him lined up next to quarterback. In his second season, he did still play detached from the line a lot, but more so as a big slot receiver. Smith may have run the 40 in the low 4.6’s at the combine, but he shows the acceleration off the snap to straight up blow by safety in press.

You also see him stutter at the line and then explode to create separation on drag routes and stuff like that, where he can run away from his man. There’s only so many 240-pound guys who will line up in the slot and beat a corner on a V-release slant. Smith does have good size to make it tough for defenders to reach around him and use subtle push-offs, but what makes him special is how natural he is as a route-runner.

He has some deceptiveness to him with not giving away breaks, he doesn’t lose much time on those square breaks, beating guys on the outside with those quick-ins, and he can legitimately run those whip and jerk routes. Something the Vikings like to do is have him sit down on hooks behind the Y running a seam or dig route for easy yardage.

Smith consistently catches the ball with his fingertips away from his body and what really impresses me is how quickly he turns himself into a runner. He instantly gets vertical once the ball touches his hands, especially on routes back to the quarterback or out to the flats, without dancing around as he is bottled. He also has the ability to have a defender quasi on his back, but defeat their pursuit as he turns upfield, plus you see him step out of a few tackles.

That’s how he turned 22 (!) of his 30 catches last season into first downs. The only two tight-ends with a slightly higher percentage were Travis Kelce and Dan Arnold. Minnesota used that strength when lining up as a wing and then slipping into the flats off split zone fakes, while actually using the defense’s eyes against them later in the year, when they used that as sort of a dummy, while running toss the other way.

Kirk Cousins missed the second-year player a few times hot in the flats from what I saw on tape, or he made the wrong read on mesh concepts, where Smith would have ripped off big yardage.

As far as blocking goes, Smith simply isn’t your classic Y tight end who they want to put at the point of attack on inside run schemes a whole lot. He displays good effort in that regard, but he won’t widen the C-gap by driving a defensive end off the spot.

What he did look pretty good at was from ace duo sets, with him off-line next to Rudolph, working up to a safety or even corner, when the two receivers were lined up on the opposite side, and keeping that contain defender from forcing the play further inside, giving Dalvin Cook room when he got out there on wide zone and toss plays.

He also has the agility to reach edge defenders when they try to get the ball to the perimeter his way and he is an excellent blocker in space from detached alignments, at times over ten yards downfield on safeties.

I don’t believe Smith will directly take over the role of Kyle Rudolph, because it wouldn’t take advantage of his biggest strengths. Tyler Conklin will probably be more of their traditional Y, to allow Smith to play detached and get free releases.

However, I do see him take over a heavy part of that target share over the middle of the field and in the red-zone, meaning the total between the two of about 700 yards last season to me looks like a reasonable baseline, while having double-digit TD upside.

#ManipulationMonday via Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr. using burst, deception and separation quickness on an in-breaking route pic.twitter.com/FMtZpjdvUj

— The Scouting Academy (@TheScoutAcademy) August 17, 2020